Professor Jonathan Fulton, an expert on Chinese policy towards the Middle East, delivered a lecture that challenged prevailing narratives about China's role in the region. Drawing insights from his research and his recent book, Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China's Middle East Math, Fulton insisted that while China's role in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is often overlooked, it has emerged as an increasingly important economic actor through sustained frameworks for partnerships.

Alternating between Beijing and an Arab country every two years, the China-Arab State cooperation forum has mapped out frameworks for technology, trade, and investments. A notable milestone came in 2014 with President Xi's announcement of the "1+2+3 Cooperative framework". This formula prioritized energy cooperation as the core, two priority areas in infrastructure and trade, and three high-tech sectors: nuclear energy, aviation satellites, and new energy. Projects that align with this framework often receive stronger backing from Beijing, whether it's access to financing or bureaucratic support.

A decade later, China's presence in MENA has become most apparent in the Gulf states, particularly the UAE, where over 400,000 Chinese nationals currently reside. The Gulf offers advantages largely absent elsewhere in the region: stability, reliable markets, and financial resources. By contrast, China's much-publicized 25-year strategic agreement with Iran represents a friendship of convenience rather than deep alignment, one that is more symbolic than substantive. While such a partnership raises security concerns in Washington and Tel Aviv, Fulton emphasized that Beijing's approach in the Middle East remains primarily pragmatic and risk averse.

Beijing's foreign policies are shaped as much by domestic dynamics as by its external environment. Political considerations at home, combined with the strategic demands of its neighborhood–particularly the South China Sea–absorb much of the leadership's attention and resources. As a result, Beijing's diplomatic and strategic focus remains concentrated on its Asian periphery. By comparison, regions like MENA occupy a more limited space in its agenda, primarily valued for their trade and energy potential.

Fulton also underscored the importance of how MENA states themselves frame their relationships with China. These countries consistently reject viewing their foreign relations through the lens of US-China great power competition. For them, China is first and foremost a trading partner and investor, not a security alternative to the United States. Looking ahead, Fulton pointed to emerging economic partnerships outside the Gulf. To access local and African markets, Chinese firms have invested heavily in manufacturing within Egypt's Suez trade zone. Morocco has become a hub for electric vehicle assembly, leveraging its free trade agreement with the EU to give Chinese producers access to the European market. Fulton claimed that these developments are outpacing academic research, leaving significant gaps in understanding China's evolving economic footprint across the region.

In conclusion, Fulton's lecture underscored the need to move beyond the notion of exaggerated Chinese expansionism in the Middle East. Rather than seeking to displace the United States, China has pursued a cautious, economically driven approach. It aligns itself with stable Gulf partners, while steering clear of risky entanglements under Washington's security umbrella. In a role best understood as pragmatic and transactional, China builds economic partnerships that are gradually diversifying beyond the Gulf.

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hosted by Professor Sanam Vakil


Jonathan Fulton is an Associate Professor of Political Science in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

An expert on Chinese policy toward the Middle East, he has written widely on the topic for both academic and popular publications. He is the author of two books, China's Relations with the Gulf Monarchies, and Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China's Middle East Math. He has also edited or co-edited four other books: External Power and the Gulf Monarchies, Regions in the Belt and Road Initiative, Routledge Handbook of China-Middle East Relations, and Asian Perceptions of Gulf Security. He has published over 30 journal articles, book chapters and reports, and dozens of op-eds and analytical pieces. His analysis has been featured in global media outlets like The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and the BBC. He is also the host of the Atlantic Council's popular China-MENA Podcast and publisher of The China-MENA Newsletter.