On October 20th, 2025, SAIS Europe hosted Norbert Röttgen, Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag and former Minister for the Environment, for a lecture focused on the future of European democracy and security in an era of global instability. Röttgen argued that Europe has entered a period of profound transformation defined by four forces: the erosion of democracy, the return of war to the continent, the collapse of the postwar global order, and the retrenchment of the United States from its traditional leadership role. Each, he noted, represents a reversal of the foundations on which the post-1945 order was built: peace, stability, and transatlantic partnership.

Röttgen began by describing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential event in modern European history. The war seeks to reestablish violence as a legitimate instrument of statecraft, echoing Clausewitz's notion of war as the continuation of politics by other means. The implications are existential for Europe. Ukraine may be the battlefield, but the real struggle is over Europe's political order. If Russia succeeds, war will again become a normalized political tool. If it fails, Europe may reaffirm the ban on war as a means of resolving disputes. Victory for Ukraine, he argued, does not require Russia's total defeat but ensuring it becomes trapped in a costly, stagnant conflict that forces a reassessment of its goals.

He then turned to the United States, whose evolving foreign policy marks what he described as a redefinition of national interests. Since 1944, the United States has treated European security as integral to its own, but that assumption has weakened. Röttgen warned that Europe must not accept disengagement as inevitable. While America's focus is shifting toward Asia, maintaining U.S. involvement in Europe remains essential. The challenge is to sustain the transatlantic relationship not through dependence but through greater strength and responsibility on Europe's part.

This led to his third theme: Europe's need to take charge of its own defense. The assumption that American protection would indefinitely guarantee security is no longer tenable. Germany, he noted, has already adapted by suspending its constitutional debt brake for defense spending and committing billions of euros to military modernization. A revised conscription model combining voluntary service with selective recruitment will help meet NATO capability targets, while a coordinated European defense industry is needed to achieve economies of scale. Europe's ability to act across financial, industrial and military matters will determine whether it remains a strategic actor.

Röttgen's fourth point addressed the condition of democracy in Europe. Fragmented party systems, populist movements and declining trust have weakened democratic resilience. He argued that a renewed social contract restoring confidence that democracy delivers security and opportunity is essential. Without it, liberal systems will not withstand external authoritarian pressure or internal social strains.

In the Q&A session, Röttgen discussed Europe's strategic dependencies and internal resilience. On China, he rejected full decoupling but urged "de-risking" to limit exposure to political coercion. He also called for more efficient defense spending through cross-border coordination and expressed confidence that younger generations would support renewed civic and military service if guided by credible leadership.

In a post-lecture interview, Röttgen reflected on the civic dimension of Europe's resilience. "Democracy can't exist without democrats and without democratic citizens that are ready to engage, and even to defend their democracy," he said, stressing that the survival of Europe's political order depends on active participation. He also noted, "We are living in historic times, and how history unfolds depends on citizens—the better educated, the more responsible they are, the more empathy they have."

Closing the seminar, Röttgen reflected on Europe's enduring purpose: peace among its members, prosperity through cooperation and stability beyond its borders. Achieving these aims, he concluded, now requires unity, strength and resilience. Despite overlapping crises of war, technology and democracy, he expressed confidence in Europe's capacity to adapt. That resilience remains its greatest source of hope.




Recorded Video:

---

hosted by Professor Hartmut Mayer


Norbert Röttgen is Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, in charge of foreign, defence and human rights policy.

He served as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee from 2014 until 2021. From 2009 to 2012, he was Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. He has been a Member of the German Parliament since 1994. During his mandate Dr. Röttgen has fulfilled key functions within the Christian Democratic Party (CDU). Dr. Röttgen, who is a lawyer by profession, holds a PhD in Law from Bonn University. He is the Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and Board Member of various institutions, such as the Atlantik-Brücke, Asia House, Club of Three, the Hertie School of Governance Berlin and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).