On November 27th, the Bologna Institute for Policy Research hosted Francis J. Gavin, Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and Director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS, for a book presentation of his newest release, 'Thinking Historically - A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy'. Moderated by Johns Hopkins SAIS Professor Mark Gilbert, the event examined why historical thinking is indispensable for policymaking, how to apply it in the decision-making process and its necessity for sound strategic choices.

Gavin began by outlining the relevance of applying a historical perspective by reflecting on his academic training. Educated in international relations theory during the late 1980s, he recalled witnessing the end of the Cold War and feeling unable to process this shift within the international relations framework. For him, this experience demonstrated that abstract theory was unable to explain, predict and navigate profound changes. Thus, he argued that historical reasoning is necessary to provide understanding, context and strategy for policy and decision-making. Therefore, his presentation centred on the necessity of historical training for better decision-making.

Thinking historically, Gavin outlined, requires wrestling with causation, contingency, relevance and context, beyond the application of predictive models. He contrasted this with political science's preference for generalizability and falsifiability, which can obscure the complex realities in which actual leaders operate. Gavin emphasized that historical reasoning is essential precisely because historians learn to work with an infinite, contested and subjectively interpreted past. By training, they thus understand that the goal is not to extract simple answers but to cultivate consciousness on identities, institutions, narratives and ideas.

Another significant element of the book and Gavin's presentation is understanding when and in which way agency and structure interact. This is a core challenge of historical statecraft and highlights the importance and agency of policy and decision-makers. While structural forces such as industrialization and demographic change shape the environment in which leaders act, individuals and their decisions still matter greatly. To underline this point, Gavin contrasted moments where structural pressures dominate with others that hinge decisively on personal choices. In its application, this means that whilst today's policymakers operate amid the demographic transition and technological revolutions, individual policy choices matter. Furthermore, history offers the realization that these changes echo past moments of transformation. Thus, whilst history does not provide ready-made answers, it equips leaders with a sense of proportion, a feeling for urgency, and a framework for their decision-making based on past policies.

In closing, Gavin concluded that thinking historically offers tools to navigate uncertainty, interrogate assumptions, and better understand others beyond their simple interests. He urged the creation of a new discipline of 'history of statecraft and strategy', designed explicitly to train practitioners and combine rigorous historical scholarship with strategic policymaking.

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hosted by Professor Mark Gilbert


Francis J. Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and the director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS.

Previously, he was the first Frank Stanton Chair in Nuclear Security Policy Studies at MIT and the Tom Slick Professor of International Affairs and the Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas. From 2005 until 2010, he directed The American Assembly's multiyear, national initiative, The Next Generation Project: U.S. Global Policy and the Future of International Institutions. He is the founding Chair of the Board of Editors for the Texas National Security Journal.

Gavin's writings include Gold, Dollars, and Power: The Politics of International Monetary Relations, 1958-1971; Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America's Atomic Age ; and Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy (Brookings Institution Press), which was named a 2020 Choice Outstanding Academic Title. His IISS-Adelphi book, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era was published in 2024. In 2025, he published Wonder and Worry: Contemporary History in an Age of Uncertainty with Stolpe Press, 2025 and Thinking Historically – A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy with Yale University Press.