With European elections in June, the Bologna Institute for Policy Research hosted a panel to examine the European Parliament's role amid shifting electoral, political, and domestic landscapes. The discussion featured SAIS Europe Rector Renaud Dehousse; SAIS Europe Professors Justin Frosini, Mark Gilbert, and Michael Leigh; University of Bologna Professor Gianfranco Baldini; and SAIS Europe student Hannah Gesang. The panel was hosted by SAIS Europe student Marion Sarah Moshammer.

The discussion began with an historical perspective of the European Parliament's role within the European Union (EU). Of particular focus was the enhanced degree of "democratic legitimization" the Parliament brings to the EU's most important decisions as a result of its increased influence since direct elections were introduced in 1979.

Panelists noted this greater influence is due in part to the fact that the European Parliament's legal powers have increased with each successive EU treaty, providing one true constant in a process of integration that has not always moved continuously forward. These increased powers are most apparent in the Parliament's supervisory capacities and its control over the European Commission's expenditures. This provides the Parliament more opportunities to express confidence toward the Commission and exercise influence over its composition.

The conversation then turned to elections' importance in influencing decisions made at the European level. One important example is the historical trend toward the Commission president becoming more responsive to popular sentiment in the European Parliament. This was especially visible in the Commission presidencies of both Jean-Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen, who each proved more responsive to parliamentary sentiments than their predecessors. This, panelists noted, is representative of an "evolution" in which political leaders are listening to a greater degree to what European citizens and voters have to say.

Parliament's responsiveness to popular sentiment is a particularly important topic because the electorate in this year's EU elections is younger than in years past. While the youth vote is not uniform or monolithic, it played a crucial role in the last elections in 2019. Now Belgium, Malta, Austria, and Germany will allow 16-year-olds to vote, while Greece's voting age has been lowered to 17. It is difficult to project the precise effect this will have, as this share of voters under 17 will not necessarily vote for liberal parties. There is also a growing gender gap in the way younger Europeans vote, something that German right-wing parties have attempted to take advantage of by using social media to reach younger voters.

Building upon these points, panelists highlighted the outgoing European Commission's "dynamic and active" character, even amid "a period of polycrisis and war." The flagship policies of this Commission, however, will be difficult to maintain given the predicted rise of far-right Eurosceptic parties in this year's elections. This could ultimately lead to a "pause" on some of the current Commission's progress on key issues, though the potential exists for these more nationalist parties to conflict with each other at the European level. Ultimately it is likely that core EU institutions will be forced to adopt policies different than those they've pursued in the past five years.

To demonstrate how some of these dynamics play out at the domestic level, panelists examined the importance of turnout in the upcoming elections in Italy, especially as total turnout has fallen on the peninsula. European elections have traditionally had considerable implications for Italian governance and influenced sitting governments, making the issue of turnout particularly prominent. This extends to the current government, as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni works to elevate her party's priorities.

Ultimately, June's elections will have far-reaching ramifications for the EU in a year in which many countries around the world will hold their own domestic elections. While the results of this summer's vote remain unclear, they will determine the European Parliament's direction over the next five years.

hosted by Professor Renaud Dehousse


EU Elections and Future Leadership: What's at Stake? - Join the Conversation

The European Parliament elections in 27 countries this June may produce a lurch to the populist, euro-skeptic right. What would this signify for the EU's next leaders and its flagship projects like those on climate, security and defense, amidst heightened global risks? Should Europe's allies be concerned?

SAIS Europe Rector, students, faculty and guests will unravel these complex developments in an open dialogue.