Europe has elected its parliament, but it was a European election only to a certain extent. Firstly, it largely served as proxy national elections. Secondly, the results could lead more to a dissolution rather than a strengthening of the Union.

In Germany and France, the countries that have traditionally driven the European project, populists from both the right and the left made significant gains. Although the outcome was less dramatic than feared, the elections highlight and solidify the critical juncture at which the Union stands. This crossroads is so significant that it will either lead to innovative, creative solutions or pose existential challenges for the European Union itself.

In both Germany and France, the election results are said to reflect a widespread dissatisfaction with the current national governments. President Macron has called for snap elections for the French parliament, and it is highly likely that these will result in Marine Le Pen's far-right party, Rassemblement National (RN), winning, with Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister. This outcome would not only complicate relations between the French government and the president but also strain Franco-German ties. In Germany, the decision on whether to hold new elections will be made after the budget round and the three state elections in the fall.

The RN and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) share a sentiment of Euroscepticism, which is particularly concerning because representatives from both parties have secured their seats in parliament, even more than before. This is quite different from expressing dissatisfaction with the EU by leaving, as Brexit demonstrated. Brexit did not yield the desired outcomes; on the contrary, immigration figures—one of the main reasons for leaving—did not decrease but surged. Now, there is a strong demand for industrial policy in the UK. However, this demand cannot be met because Labour remains committed to austerity, and there is no prospect of rejoining the customs union, which would offer additional revenue. National sentiment is shifting towards "Regrexit," yet the motivation for a second referendum remains low.

Brexit is a disgrace for the EU, but it will not lead to the Union's destruction. It could be different if its fundamental values are attacked from within. Populists capitalize on a sentiment of disappointment in the former neo-liberal consensus. These ideas experience a severe loss of trust, which also extends to the European and national institutions. This concerns the idea that liberal democracy and human rights would deliver prosperity or the premises of the 1990s that public goods can be provided by markets and civil society, which called into question the intervention and legitimacy of the State and now makes the State hard to govern.

Hence, one of the crucial questions will be how the market, civil society, and the State can be balanced – in both Europe and the US. This is because the problems of the two blocs largely overlap, except that the US election in November will have much more serious consequences for Ukraine, China, the transatlantic relationship, and the world. A sign of enduring Western hegemony. Yet the decline of this dominance has been apparent for some time, as seen in decisions within the international legal system and the shift towards a multi- or even non-polar world.

Organized by The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), in partnership with the IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs (SPEGA), Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs, and PSIA Sciences Po.