Following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. have long discussed how to handle Russia. Panelists provided historical explanations on how the invasion of Ukraine came to be and how the West's future relationship with Russia should look like.

Since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war Europe and the U.S. have argued amongst themselves as to what conditions led Russia to invade. Panelists started their explanation by describing how today's relations with Russia were unimaginable in the 1990s against the backdrop of the Soviet collapse. There had been hope that Russia would eventually solidify its democracy and join Europe. However, with the dissolution of the USSR and the enlargement of institutions like NATO or the EU into Russia's immediate neighborhood, some Russians felt as if the West was trying to infringe upon Russia's security and potentially change its regime. This sentiment has tended to bolster support for Vladimir Putin, on the premise that he could protect Russia against this perceived encroachment.

Today, the war in Ukraine resembles the trench warfare of World War I. Panelists also highlighted that although Ukraine's western allies initially provided large amounts of financial and material aid, this support is starting to slip and might come to an end depending on American and European leadership at the end of 2024. However, if the West decide to continue supporting Ukraine, it needs to make immediate improvements to its military industrial base. Panelists claimed that Russia fired nearly 15,000 shells a day compared to the United States's production of a mere 30,000 shells a month.

Panelists also explained that even in Europe there are varying degrees of fear of the current Russia. They explain that some western European countries are more worried about Russian weakness, its inability to maintain its statehood. On the contrary, states closer to Russia like the Baltics are more afraid of Russia's military power. It is these states who are most frightened by NATO's recent timid response to the Russian aggression. First, they believe that the diminishing support for Ukraine sends a message to Russia that the West no longer cares about Ukraine. Second, the Baltic states feel safer with Russia being tied up in Ukraine, believing that Russia will not attack them as long as they are busy with a different war.

For the future, Panelists discussed two possible outcomes to the West's relationship with Russia. First, if Russia loses to Ukraine, they believed that Russia would fall into turmoil. They believe that the Putin regime needs the war for its existence, it would be nearly impossible for the regime to continue if Russia was defeated. Second, a victory over Ukraine would see an emboldened Russia. They believe that Russia would potentially become reliant on being a war economy and would therefore continue to work towards destabilizing Europe, driving a wedge in the Transatlantic relationship.

Organized by The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), in partnership with the IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs (SPEGA), Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs, and PSIA Sciences Po.