With crucial elections held on both sides of the Atlantic in 2024, the Bologna Institute for Policy Research hosted a conversation exploring the political and policy implications of this electoral phase for Europe. The event was the first in the Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year Series and featured Cas Mudde, Professor at the University of Georgia, Sylvie Kauffmann, Editorial Director of Le Monde, Michael Leigh, Professor at SAIS Europe and Nathalie Tocci, Director of Istituto Affari Internazionali. It was hosted by SAIS Europe's Rector Renaud Dehousse.

Mudde commenced by offering analysis of the European Parliament elections in June. These elections resulted in significant gains for far-right parties, now occupying approximately 25% of the seats in the EP. However, Mudde emphasized that the key issue is not merely the electoral results but how these parties wield their newfound power to influence policies.

Kauffmann expanded on this point by examining the political context in France, where President Macron's decision to call snap elections backfired, leading to a fragmented parliament with three main blocs. With the minority government dependent on the far-right National Rally (RN) for its support, RN has shifted from being a political outcast to playing a kingmaker role.

Leigh then turned to the UK, describing the recent general election as a "change election" following the Conservative Party's staggering loss. While the Labour Party secured a strong majority with 158 seats, the election underscored the fragmentation of the UK political system. The far-right Reform UK party emerged as a significant force, coming in second place in many constituencies. Leigh noted that Labour, despite its promise of change, has shown a cautious approach in government, fearing the further rise of the far right in the next election cycle.

Tocci provided insights into Italy's political landscape, highlighting it as an early example of the center-right's strategic embrace of the radical right. This move, intended to contain the far right, ultimately legitimized it. Meloni's government, while maintaining a façade of moderation, has been constrained by external factors such as Italy's reliance on EU funding and a lack of allies within the EU. However, as some of these constraints, like the weakening Franco-German axis, begin to erode, Meloni may feel emboldened to pursue a more overtly right-wing agenda.

The panelists emphasized the need to look beyond electoral outcomes and consider how these political shifts impact policymaking and governance in Europe. The rise of far-right parties and their increasing influence within mainstream politics pose significant challenges for the EU's policy agenda, disregarding issues such as the EU's relationship with the Global South.

Ultimately, the panelists agreed that the upcoming US elections will be critical to Europe. The re- election of President Trump would likely mark a return to his America First policies, presenting steep challenges to transatlantic relations. The election of Vice President Harris would mark a change in U.S. politics and potentially shift foreign policy focus away from Europe towards China and South America. In any case, the EU will need to become more self-reliant to navigate future foreign policy challenges.

Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year Series and Patrick McCarthy Memorial Series on Intellectuals and Politics

hosted by Professor Renaud Dehousse


Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year - A series of talks @SAIS Europe

Politics and policy in the transatlantic space are deeply intertwined. Crucial elections held in 2024 in Europe and the United States are destined to shape politics and policy on the two shores of the Atlantic for years to come. This cycle of events held at SAIS Europe in the academic year 2024-25 will explore the major political and policy implications of this electoral phase, and in particular its repercussions on Europe and on the transatlantic relationship.

Politics and Policy in the Europe after the European Elections

By late summer 2024, the next cohort of leaders emerging from elections at national and EU level and negotiations between member states will be known. This first meeting will explore the likely policy priorities of the new EU political-institutional cycle, including defence, enlargement and geoeconomics, as well as the potential implications of voters' choices in countries like France and the UK.

SYLVIE KAUFFMANN

Sylvie Kauffmann is Editorial Director, lead writer, and columnist at the French newspaper Le Monde, for whom she writes a weekly column on global affairs. Her opinion pieces on European and international politics have also appeared in the New York Times. Previously, she was the first female editor-in-chief of Le Monde, a position she held during the Wikileaks collaboration with El País, the Guardian, and the New York Times. She has reported from Asia, Eastern Europe, and the United States, where she wrote a prize-winning series of articles about life in the US following the 9/11 attacks.

MICHAEL LEIGH

Sir Michael Leigh is Academic Director, Master of Arts in European Public Policy, Academic Director, Master of Arts in Global Risk and Senior Adjunct Professor at SAIS Europe. He is currently Senior Fellow, Bruegel, Brussels, and Senior Advisor, Covington & Burling LLP, Brussels. Previously he was senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States; Director-General for Enlargement of the European Commission; Deputy Director-General for External Relations; cabinet member and official, European Commission; Assistant Professor of International Relations, SAIS Bologna Center (1976-1977); Lecturer in International Relations University of Sussex. Erskine Fellow University of Canterbury, New Zealand. His research, writing and public speaking focus on the future of the EU, Brexit, enlargement, neighborhood policy; Turkey's relations with the EU, Europe's response to political change in the Mediterranean and Middle East; energy questions in the eastern Mediterranean; public opinion and foreign policy. He also has an interest in Asia-Pacific and its relations with Europe. He writes and comments regularly on European affairs for Geopolitical Intelligence Services reports online, Euractiv and other media. Leigh holds a Bachelors degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University and a PhD in Political Science from M.I.T.

CAS MUDDE

Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF Professor of International Affairs and a Distinguished Research Professor at the University of Georgia. He is a world-renowned scholar of far-right and populist politics, focusing specifically, but not exclusively, on party politics in Europe and North America. His book Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe (Cambridge University Press, 2007) won the Stein Rokkan Prize for Comparative Social Science Research in 2008. His recent books include (with Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser) Populism: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2017), which has so far been translated into almost 20 languages, i>The Far Right Today (Polity, 2019), which has almost 10 translations, and (with Sivan Hirsch-Hoefler) The Israeli Settler Movement: Assessing and Explaining Social Movement Success (Cambridge University Press, 2021). Dr. Mudde was elected a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW) in 2022. He is also a prominent voice in the public debate, being consulted by various non-state and state actors and interviewed by media around the world. He is a columnist for Aftonbladet (Sweden) and The Guardian (US), a regular contributor to VoxEurope, and host of the podcast RADIKAAL, which focuses on the radical aspects of music, politics, and sports.

NATHALIE TOCCI

Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Adjunct Professor at the School of Transnational Governance (European University Institute), Honorary Professor at the University of Tübingen, independent and non-executive board member of the energy company Eni and Europe's Futures fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences (Institut für die Wissenschaften vom Menschen, IWM). She has been Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell. In that capacity, she wrote the European Global Strategy and worked on its implementation. Tocci has been Pierre Keller Visiting Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and, prior to joining Eni, she was independent board member of Edison. She has held research positions at the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, the Transatlantic Academy, Washington, the European University Institute, Florence, and has taught at the College of Europe, Bruges. Her research interests include European integration and European foreign policy, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, transatlantic relations, multilateralism, conflict resolution, energy, climate and defence. Nathalie Tocci is a columnist for Politico and La Stampa.