The panel discussion, part of the "Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year" Series, explored the implications of the recent U.S. election for Europe. The experts agreed that significant shifts in U.S. foreign and domestic policy could be expected – compared not only to the outgoing administration of U.S. President Joe Biden but also to the first presidency of Donald Trump from 2017 to 2021. Europe will need to navigate an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy while battling internal fragmentation and a leadership vacuum in key member states.

John Harper argued that, despite deep divisions in the U.S. electorate, the election results should not be overinterpreted as a landslide victory for Donal Trump. He suggested that Trump's appeal rested partly in economic and immigration issues, which the Democrats may not have adequately addressed. Depending on how some of Trump's policy proposals will play out, Democrats may have a good chance to win back voters in 2026 and 2028. In terms of foreign policy, Harper anticipated a potential shift in the U.S. stance on Ukraine and outlined several scenarios, touching on a "peace plan" outlined by Vice President-elect JD Vance. This plan would, however, resemble a "total sell-out of Ukraine" and might face opposition from within the Republican Party.

Amanda Sloat emphasized the polarization within the U.S. and the Democrats' struggle to retain electoral support from its working-class base. She discussed Trump's unpredictability in policy-making, which makes it difficult for allies to prepare. Compared to his previous presidency, now there would be fewer "adults in the room". The focus of Trump's cabinet hiring decisions would this time be largely on loyalty rather than expertise. A likely foreign policy priority of the second Trump presidency is China, with an immediate focus on trade. Sloat also anticipated a more transactional approach to the Taiwan question, strong support for the current Israeli government, and a tough stance on Iran. She does not expect the U.S. to pull out of NATO but said that Trump will likely press Europeans to further increase their defense spending. Implications for Ukraine will depend on the level of funding commitments by European countries but also on Russian President Putin's reaction to Trump's potential interest in seeking a negotiated settlement.

Majda Ruge said the election was a "moment of truth" for Europe. She agreed that the U.S. might not pull out of NATO entirely, but also expects a more dormant NATO, with the U.S. pressing Europe further on its defense spending. She reiterated Trump's focus on loyalty and noted that business interests might play an increasing role in Trump's foreign policy. It will be interesting to see, she said, how Elon Musk's business interests in China will interact with other members of Trump's administration. As another example of the "Trump business oligarchy" she mentioned Jared Kushner's proposal to establish luxury hotels in Gaza. She noted an extension of culture wars, and that Trump might to prone to favoring populist "strongman" leaders over traditional European allies.

Nathalie Tocci noted that the Trump administration's set-up differs this time, as does Europe's position. Unlike in 2016, Europe now faces a leadership deficit, a weakened Franco-German motor, and a resurgence of nationalism in countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, and the Netherlands. Tocci predicted that Trump's second term would likely bring economic challenges, including pressure on Europe to align with his protectionist stance on China. She added that a potential "peace deal" with Russia under Trump would likely delay, not prevent, further aggression, giving Europe time to strengthen its defense capabilities but also risking division.

Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year Series

hosted by Professor Renaud Dehousse


Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year - A series of talks @SAIS Europe

Politics and policy in the transatlantic space are deeply intertwined. Crucial elections held in 2024 in Europe and the United States are destined to shape politics and policy on the two shores of the Atlantic for years to come. This cycle of events held at SAIS Europe in the academic year 2024-25 will explore the major political and policy implications of this electoral phase, and in particular its repercussions on Europe and on the transatlantic relationship.

The US Election - Where Does it Leave Europe?

The 2024 US presidential election may be one of the most consequential in the history of the transatlantic relationship. The two candidates stand for diametrically opposite views on most issues, including Europe. This second meeting will unpack the implications of the US election on US foreign policy, and specifically its approach to Europe, including the EU, NATO and the transatlantic economic relationship.

AMANDA SLOAT

Amanda Sloat is the Former Special Assistant to President Biden, and Former Senior Director for Europe at the National Security Council. Before joining the Biden Administration, she served as the Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She was also a non-resident fellow in the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center. Dr. Sloat previously served in the U.S. government for nearly a decade. During the Obama Administration, she was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Southern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean Affairs at the State Department; Senior Advisor to the White House Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf Region; and Senior Advisor to the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. She also worked as senior professional staff on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, with responsibility for European policy. Prior to her government service, she was a senior program officer with the National Democratic Institute (NDI), including work in Iraq with the Council of Representatives. Dr. Sloat was a post-doctoral research fellow with the Institute of Governance at Queen's University Belfast. During this time, she held visiting fellowships at the Academy of Sciences in the Czech Republic, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, and the Jean Monnet Center at New York University Law School. She also served as a special advisor to the Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly, and European Commission. Dr. Sloat holds a PhD in Politics from the University of Edinburgh and a BA in Political Theory from James Madison College at Michigan State University. She has published a book (Scotland in Europe: A Study of Multi-Level Governance) and numerous articles on European politics.

MAJDA RUGE

Majda Ruge is a Senior Policy Fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in Berlin. Before joining ECFR, she spent three years as a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute/SAIS at the Johns Hopkins University. She has twice testified as an expert witness at hearings of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Western Balkans. Ruge worked in management and advisory capacities for the Delegation of the European Commission to Bosnia and Herzegovina and the OSCE Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina. During this time she participated in key state-building reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which merged the sub-state customs and tax administrations into a single state-level institution. Between 2012 and 2014, she was a post-doctoral fellow and lecturer at the Otto-Suhr-Institute of the Free University of Berlin, where she taught courses on international relations and nationalism. From 2014 to 2016, she lived in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where she was associated with the Gulf Research Center. Ruge holds degrees from the European University Institute (PhD,2011 and MA, 2006), Central European University in Budapest (MA in International Relations and European Studies, 2001) and Agnes Scott College in Atlanta, Georgia (BA in International Relations, 2000).

NATHALIE TOCCI

Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Adjunct Professor at the School of Transnational Governance (European University Institute), Honorary Professor at the University of Tübingen, independent and non-executive board member of the energy company Eni and Europe's Futures fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences (Institut für die Wissenschaften vom Menschen, IWM). She has been Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell. In that capacity, she wrote the European Global Strategy and worked on its implementation. Tocci has been Pierre Keller Visiting Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and, prior to joining Eni, was an independent board member of Edison. She has held research positions at the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, the Transatlantic Academy, Washington, the European University Institute, Florence, and has taught at the College of Europe, Bruges. Her research interests include European integration and European foreign policy, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, transatlantic relations, multilateralism, conflict resolution, energy, climate and defence. Tocci is a columnist for Politico and La Stampa.

JOHN L. HARPER

John L. Harper is Senior Adjunct Professor, SAIS Europe, and Professor Emeritus, Johns Hopkins University. AB Haverford College, 1972; PhD, Johns Hopkins SAIS, 1981; Resident Professor of American Foreign Policy and European Studies at the Bologna Center/SAIS Europe, 1981-2020. Member of the Istituto Affari Internazionali; contributing editor, Survival; former German Marshall Fund Research Fellow. He is the author of America and the Reconstruction of Italy, 1945-1948, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986, winner of the Marraro Prize from the Society for Italian Historical Studies, 1987 (in Italian translation as: America e la ricostruzione dell'Italia, Bologna: Il Mulino, 1987); American Visions of Europe: Franklin D. Roosevelt, George F. Kennan, and Dean G. Acheson, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994, winner of the Robert H. Ferrell Prize from the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations, 1995; American Machiavelli: Alexander Hamilton and the Origins of U.S. Foreign Policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004; The Cold War, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011 (In Italian translation as: La Guerra fredda: un mondo in bilico, Bologna: Il Mulino, 2013; Greek edition by Gutenberg Press, 2021).