This Monday's BIPR seminar focused on the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war, the implications of the recent re-election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, and potential future outcomes of the war, a ceasefire, and post-war Ukraine. Director of the Rome-based Istituto Affari Internazionali Nathalie Tocci opened the discussion by touching on the status of the war throughout 2024, characterizing it as a year of continuation. While some analysts feared the Ukrainian front would collapse last year, many expected the continuation of the slow grind of Russian forces against Ukrainian defenses and a lack of dramatic action until after the U.S. election in November. She then outlined three potential scenarios: Ukraine and Russia successfully negotiate a truce, Vladimir Putin declines a truce and openly continues with the war, or Putin enters negotiations while continuing the waiting for Trump to get tired and focus elsewhere. The first scenario is one Tocci believed to outline Trump's desired peace plan, including de facto recognition of Russian occupied territory (including Crimea) as Russian, enforced neutrality, and a European "tripwire" force of between 50,000-200,000 troops to prevent Russia from breaking the ceasefire, although she stated it was unclear whether or not Putin would accept. The second Tocci attributes to the perception in the Kremlin that Russia is winning the war, as well as a fear on the behalf of Trump of Ukraine becoming his Afghanistan and an escalation of U.S. military support of Ukraine. The third scenario she describes as the most dangerous, as Trump, who is known for his liking of simple, straightforward negotiation, may become worn down and frustrated in the peace process, while Putin can continue the war as peace talks stall.

SAIS Europe professor Eugene Finkel continued the discussion by focusing on the current military and economic state of Ukraine. Finkel compared the two warring countries to sand hourglasses, stating the loser will be whichever runs out of sand first. He attributed Russia's hourglass to mainly economic and social issues, while Ukraine's was military and foreign policy. Finkel then touched on the state of the war, highlighting the main two problems the Ukrainian army currently faces: lack of trained soldiers and material. He also spoke on the debate within Ukrainian society over drafting exempt 18-25 year old men, however Finkel emphasized such an action would be only a partial solution, as the new soldiers would need to be trained and mobilized. Finkel concluded his portion with a discussion on Ukraine's optimism towards Trump, as the status quo under Biden became unacceptable and Trump presented himself as a hope for a different approach. He additionally concluded that Trump has his own motivations for wanting to end the war, doubling down on Tocci's point of Ukraine becoming a foreign policy blunder much like Biden's withdrawal in Afghanistan.

Senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Kadri Liik's portion of the seminar covered Moscow's perceptions of the current status of the war, painting Russia as an actor which is not prepared to moderate their war goals especially as they have taken the upper hand. She highlighted a speech Putin delivered in June 2024 to the Foreign Ministry Staff as evidence, spelling out Russia's aims which included global acknowledgement of four Ukrainian provinces (plus Crimea) as Russian, Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization, leadership that is friendly to Russia, and a new rearranged European security order to be negotiated with the US, Europe, and Eurasian powers. Liik added that she believed Tocci's third scenario would be the most likely, and that such a situation would be catastrophic for Ukraine with implications such as lack of foreign investment, a country constantly anxious of a renewed Russian offensive, economic decline, and an exodus of military-aged men that would reduce Ukraine's capacity to defend itself, should Russia resume the war.

University of Bologna Professor Filippo Andreatta concluded the talk by focusing on foreign military and economic aid. Andreatta commented that outside support has been crucial for Ukraine, given the demographic and economic disparity. In the first year, EU support was predominant in the financial sector, whereas in the last period it has overcome US aid even in the military sector. However, Europe faces political challenges in maintaining this support, particularly as populist parties in countries such as France and Germany push back against increased defense support. He also warned that an extended negotiation scenario could fracture the EU, as individual states may seek separate deals with Russia. With respect to the United States, Andreatta suggested that continued support for Ukraine is a good deal, stating that aid is costing about 0.2% of the U.S. GDP, much less than the 0.7% of the Iraqi war, the 0,9% of the Vietnam War and the 2,9% of the Korean War.

Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year Series

hosted by Professor Renaud Dehousse


Transatlantic Politics and Policy after the Election Year - A series of talks @SAIS Europe

Politics and policy in the transatlantic space are deeply intertwined. Crucial elections held in 2024 in Europe and the United States are destined to shape politics and policy on the two shores of the Atlantic for years to come. This cycle of events held at SAIS Europe in the academic year 2024-25 will explore the major political and policy implications of this electoral phase, and in particular its repercussions on Europe and on the transatlantic relationship.

The Transatlantic Relationship, Ukraine and European Security

The new US and EU leaderships will be hugely influential on the evolution of the war in Ukraine and the future of European security. This third meeting will assess the US' willingness to remain engaged in European security and the EU's ability to remain united and push for European defence and enlargement, all of which are crucial variables impacting the Ukraine war and its aftermath.

FILIPPO ANDREATTA

Filippo Andreatta is Full Professor of Political Science and President of the Master's degree in International Sciences at the University of Bologna. He is Vice president of Arel and Director of the Research Center on War, Peace and International Change, part of the Bruno Kessler Foundation. Previously he was Visiting Professor at the School of International Studies, University of Trento (2014-2017), Associate Professor at the University of Parma (2002-2005), and Adjunct Professor at the Bologna Center of the Paul Nitze School of Advanced and International Studies of Johns Hopkins University (2005-2006), at Bocconi University (2002-2003) and at the University of Bologna (1997-2002). He has also been Fellow at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Bruxelles, 1997-1999), at the Schumann Centre of the European University Institute (Florence, 1997-1998), the Institute for Security Studies of the Western European Union (Paris 1996), and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, 1992). Andreatta has written 4 books and over 80 articles and book chapters in English or Italian, and edited two volumes. He is also the co-author of a widely adopted textbook on International Relations.

KADRI LIIK

Kadri Liik is Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her research focuses on Russia, Eastern Europe, and the Baltic region. Before joining ECFR in October 2012, Liik was the Director of the International Centre for Defence Studies in Estonia from 2006 until 2011, where she also worked as a Senior Researcher and Director of the Centre's Lennart Meri Conference. Throughout the 1990s, Liik worked as a Moscow correspondent for several Estonian daily papers, including the highest-circulating daily in Estonia, Postimees, as well as Eesti Päevaleht and the Baltic News Service. In 2002, she became the foreign news editor at Postimees. In 2004, Liik became editor-in-chief at the monthly foreign affairs magazine, Diplomaatia. She was also the host of "Välismääraja", a current affairs talkshow at Raadio Kuku in Tallinn. Liik holds a BA in Journalism from Tartu University (Estonia) and an MA in International Relations specialising in diplomacy from Lancaster University.

EUGENE FINKEL

Eugene Finkel is Kenneth H. Keller Professor of International Affairs, and Academic and Faculty Liaison at SAIS Europe. Eugene (Evgeny) Finkel works at the intersection of political science and history. He was born in Ukraine and grew up in Israel. Finkel received a BA in Political Science and International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a PhD in Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His research focuses on how institutions and individuals respond to extreme situations: mass violence, state collapse, and rapid change. Finkel's most recent book is Intent to Destroy: Russia's Two-Hundred-Year Quest to Dominate Ukraine (Basic Books, 2024). He is also the author of Ordinary Jews: Choice and Survival during the Holocaust (Princeton University Press, 2017), Reform and Rebellion in Weak States (Cambridge University Press, 2020, co-authored with Scott Gehlbach) and Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics and Security in Putin's Russia (Oxford University Press, 2023, co-authored with Janetta Azarieva and Yitzhak M. Brudny). His articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics, Comparative Political Studies, Comparative Politics, East European Politics and Societies, Slavic Review, and several other journals and edited volumes. Finkel also published articles and op-eds in The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Foreign Affairs, The Spectator and other outlets.

NATHALIE TOCCI

Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Adjunct Professor at the School of Transnational Governance (European University Institute), Honorary Professor at the University of Tübingen, independent and non-executive board member of the energy company Eni and Europe's Futures fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences (Institut für die Wissenschaften vom Menschen, IWM). She has been Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell. In that capacity, she wrote the European Global Strategy and worked on its implementation. Tocci has been Pierre Keller Visiting Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and, prior to joining Eni, was an independent board member of Edison. She has held research positions at the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, the Transatlantic Academy, Washington, the European University Institute, Florence, and has taught at the College of Europe, Bruges. Her research interests include European integration and European foreign policy, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, transatlantic relations, multilateralism, conflict resolution, energy, climate and defence. Tocci is a columnist for Politico and La Stampa.