Bio
Johannes Gabriel is Adjunct Professor at SAIS Europe
Founder and Managing Director, Foresight Intelligence, Berlin
At Foresight Intelligence, an organizational consultancy specialized in strategic foresight, Johannes conducts strategic planning processes for the German Government, implements intercultural and multi-stakeholder strategic dialogues for leading think tanks, and advised MNCs in organizational development and strategy projects. He is a non-resident fellow of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) and, since its foundation in 2010, part of the Global Governance Futures program team. He received a master's degree with distinction in political science and economics from the University of Trier. From 2009 to 2011 he was a PhD fellow with the Society and Technology Research Group in Berlin, the Daimler AG’s foresight division. In 2011 he completed his PhD thesis on theoretical aspects of future studies. Dr. Gabriel has authored and co-authored research articles for, among others,
WIREs Climate Change, Internationale Politik, Futures and the
European Journal of Futures Research.
Courses
- Strategic Foresight for Political Risk Analysis: Working with Scenarios
Geostrategic risk is the term used to bracket one of the most important collections of variables in macroeconomic policymaking, trade and investment. The onset of war or other forms of violent conflict can close access to foreign markets, disrupt global supply chains, threaten energy resources, and depress business and consumer confidence. Therefore, of primary concern are the points at which diplomacy gives way to conflict and conflict results in violence. Terrorism is similarly disruptive, but the actors involved are different and the scale of direct destruction is (usually) more limited. But these are only the most obvious sources of geopolitical risk. Governments and business leaders should also pay attention to any rise in cross-cultural tensions; they should look at migration flows, human trafficking, and organized crime. Cross-border reputational risk is also a potential problem: today's special relationship can easily develop into tomorrow's embarrassment and the next day's major problem. Finally, there are the unique dynamics associated with multilateral bargaining and international organizations. Students will come away from this course understanding how the broad array of 'international relations' factors into political and economic calculations. They will gain exposure to a range of causal mechanisms tied to issues like the onset of war, terrorist attacks, criminal activities, cross-cultural sensitivities, complex negotiations and supranational institutions. Along the way, students will prepare case studies to illustrate just how these risks have emerged in diverse parts of the world, but also how they have been managed from the perspective of a single firm or government.
