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BIPR | News and Views
Trump says Iran's government is in a 'state of collapse,' but analysts see evolution, not fractures
May 11, 2026

Sanam Vakil
James Anderson Adjunct Professor
News Description
The article argues that despite President Trump's claims of 'infighting and confusion' inside Iran's leadership following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, analysts see little evidence of a regime in collapse; instead, power appears to be consolidating around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a collective wartime leadership structure. Sanam Vakil says Iran is undergoing a gradual transition from clerical to more security-driven rule, with the IRGC playing an increasingly dominant role, but she argues the regime remains fundamentally united around its survival and strategic goals. Vakil also suggests that Trump has likely exaggerated internal divisions in Iran to explain the lack of quick diplomatic progress, noting that Tehran's objectives and 'red lines' appear clearer and more coherent than those of Washington.



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