In 2021, Dmitri Alperovitch was one of the first analysts to publicly predict Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine. As a leading national security expert, Alperovitch examines the rising conflict between China and Taiwan and draws parallels to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In his discussion with Professor Sergey Radchenko, he contended that the United States has effectively entered a new Cold War with China. Through his book, World on the Brink, he explores strategies to win this second Cold War.

Alperovitch argues that the current U.S.-China standoff mirrors many aspects of the Cold War with the Soviet Union. In both cases, a major power—first the Soviet Union and now China—embarked on a global competition for supremacy against the U.S. in key domains such as economic, technological, military, space, and intelligence. However, Alperovitch identifies a crucial distinction between the Cold Wars of the 20th and 21st centuries. Mainly, the economic interdependence between the U.S. and China is far more mutual than it was during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, where dependency was largely one-sided.

Alperovitch further identified five factors driving the agendas of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, factors he believes are an indication that China is intent on conquering Taiwan in the next decade. First, both leaders erroneously view Ukraine and Taiwan as historically integral territories whose independence is a mere "fluke" to be corrected. Second, both the Chinese and the Russian leaders see unification with these regions as questions of their historical legacies, as well as of national destinies of their respective countries. Additionally, the factors of security and geography go hand in hand as both countries aim to protect their borders and solidify regional dominance. Given Xi's age, Alperovitch further suggests that the next decade is the critical window for action.

Ultimately, Alperovitch asserts that to win a Cold War, the United States has to acknowledge that it is fighting a Cold War, and to recognize the stakes: this is no longer a matter of competition but rather a confrontation the United States cannot afford to lose.

hosted by Professor Renaud Dehousse


WORLD ON THE BRINK: HOW AMERICA CAN BEAT CHINA IN THE RACE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

A leading national security expert lays out how the United States can keep its place as the world's top superpower in the face of a rising China. Over the past few decades, China has climbed the ranks of the global powers with staggering speed, and its vast economy and growing regional aggression threaten to supersede the United States as the world's dominant power. But this outcome is far from inevitable.

Like neighboring Russia — which harbors global ambitions of its own — China is now at a turning point. Whereas international sanctions and a turn away from fossil fuels are steadily smothering Russia, China's downfall will be its shrinking population. China's chance to achieve global hegemony will soon disappear, making its quest for power both less certain and more dangerous.

In World on the Brink, security expert Dmitri Alperovitch breaks down not only the significant weaknesses that have so far prevented China from surpassing the United States, but also the key strategies that will enable the US to maintain primacy even as China ramps up its efforts. The US must cultivate crucial alliances, foster domestic innovation in emerging tech fields, and stabilize international relations with adversarial nations in anticipation of a new cold war that seems more likely every day.

As Alperovitch explains, the US must play to its strengths and address its weaknesses, using its leverage as the strongest nation on the planet to tactfully navigate the next cold war. This sharp, timely book is the essential blueprint for doing just that.

DMITRI ALPEROVITCH

Dmitri Alperovitch is a national bestselling author and an internationally recognized thought leader on geopolitics and national security. He is a cofounder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a think-tank focused on policy solutions in national security, trade and industrial security, and ecological and economic security. Alperovitch is also the cofounder of CrowdStrike, one of the world's largest cybersecurity companies, and has been named in Foreign Policy's Top 100 Leading Global Thinkers and MIT Technology Review's Top 35 Innovators Under 35.

In late 2021, Alperovitch was one of the first geopolitical analysts to have publicly predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine later that winter. Alperovitch serves on the Homeland Security Advisory Council of the Department of Homeland Security and as a founding board member of US Government's Cyber Safety Review Board, and has previously served as a special advisor to the Department of Defense. He is the host of Silverado's "Geopolitics Decanted" podcast.