The Bologna Institute of Policy Research, in collaboration with the Center for Constitutional Studies and Democratic Development (CCSDD), hosted Professor Francisco González to discuss the current state of Mexico's democracy. The event was introduced by Professor Justin Frosini, who voiced concerns about the judicial independence in Mexico, particularly in light of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) proposal to elect judges by popular vote. Frosini emphasized that such changes threaten the separation of powers and could undermine Mexico's democratic institutions.

Professor González contextualized these developments as part of a broader global trend of democratic backsliding, with Mexico serving as a critical case due to its status as a major emerging market and its close economic ties to the United States. He began by recounting Mexico's political and economic transformations since the 1970s. Politically, the country transitioned to an electoral democracy by 2000, facilitated by the integration of opposition parties into the political system. Economically, Mexico shifted from protectionism to embracing neoliberal reforms, opening up its markets. However, González pointed out that despite these advancements, the Mexican state has remained weak, with a lack of effective rule of law and a domestic economy dominated by a few powerful firms.

This weakness has manifested in persistent social challenges, including extreme inequality, high levels of violence, and the infiltration of the state by organized crime. González then turned to AMLO's reforms, which he argued have further jeopardized Mexico's democratic institutions. The first controversial reform was the introduction of popular elections for judges, which González argued undermines the system of checks and balances. He warned that politically dominant groups could manipulate these elections to fill the judiciary with allies, eroding judicial independence.

A second reform involved transferring control of the civilian police force, the Guardia Nacional, to the military, effectively placing it outside the oversight of civilian courts. González expressed concern that this move further centralizes power and diminishes accountability. The third significant reform, currently under discussion, involves reabsorbing independent regulatory bodies in sectors like energy and telecommunications into the state, threatening their autonomy.

González also highlighted a proposed reform to the National Electoral Institute (INE), which would make its members subject to popular elections. Like the judicial reforms, he argued that this would reflect the current political power dynamics and could severely undermine the integrity of Mexico's electoral system, potentially endangering the existence of free and fair elections.

In conclusion, González warned that Mexico's liberal democracy is at risk of being captured by political forces, weakening its system of checks and balances. With Claudia Sheinbaum recently assuming the presidency, he noted that her policies thus far have followed AMLO's blueprint. However, he expressed cautious optimism, suggesting that Sheinbaum may still pivot toward more evidence-based policymaking.

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Jointly organized by the Johns Hopkins SAIS Europe and the Center For Constitutional Studies And Democratic Development - CCSDD
hosted by Professor Justin O. Frosini


Francisco González is Associate Professor of Latin American Studies at SAIS Europe and Associate Professor of International Political Economy and Latin American Politics at Johns Hopkins SAIS. His research interests include the political economy of Latin America, global and regional energy issues, and Sino–Latin American relations, among other topics. He earned his master's (MPhil 1997) and doctoral (DPhil 2002) degrees in Politics from the University of Oxford, and his BA in Politics and Public Administration from El Colegio de México (1995). Dr. Gonzalez is a two-time recipient of the JHU SAIS Max M. Fisher Prize for Excellence in Teaching (2012 and 2006). Postdoctoral Activity: British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford (2002-2005); Professorial Lecturer in Latin America Political Economy at JHU-SAIS Bologna Center (2003-2005); Stipendary Lecturer in Politics at St. John's College at the University of Oxford (2000-2002).