On the 27th of February, the Bologna Institute for Policy Research welcomed Dr Andrew Monaghan – a renowned specialist in Russian grand strategy – to discuss his perspective on Moscow's strategic culture in war. Monaghan offered intriguing insights into the vital roles played by subjective historical interpretation, geography, culture and anxiety in framing Russia's approach to not only the ongoing war in Ukraine – but war as a fundamental concept.

Adopting a multidisciplinary lens to consider Moscow's strategic thinking, Monaghan discussed the role of the wars of the 20th century in informing the Kremlin's interpretations of Europe and its interests – a sense of anxiety which is further compounded by the country's vast and isolated geography. In this context, Monaghan highlighted that Russian leaders view history not just as a past experience, but a tool for shaping future policy, especially in military and geopolitical contexts. Consequently, Monaghan implores that applying empathy is key to drawing meaningful conclusions from the sources and history which informs the Western and Russian understandings of war. He noted that where empathy is lacking, it often remains difficult indeed to "draw together two sets of narratives."

Additionally, Monaghan noted that although the West often considers the 'Russian way in war' to be distinctive, there remain several areas of overlap between Eastern and Western considerations of war and strategy which should better considered. Indeed, Monaghan astutely emphasised that many the very fundamentals of the 'Russian' way of war draw upon the 'Western' way of war – for instance, Karl von Clausewitz himself being of Prussian descent and serving as a Russian officer.

Firstly, as in the West, Russia's internal struggles with decision-making, military hierarchies and fragmented policy implementation across bureaucracies can shape the country's strategic culture as much as a single leader can. Secondly, Russia's strategic culture is not something that should be considered in a static manner. Rather, it has evolved over time – including under Putin's direction since the 2000s. The world can now expect a growing Russian emphasis on maritime power and geoeconomics – as is reflected also by America's strategic cultural changes. Looking forward, Russia's strategic priorities are likely to focus on reshaping its military and geopolitical presence across these areas.

To conclude, Monaghan spoke to the importance of a far more nuanced, multidimensional approach to analysing the Kremlin's military and geopolitical strategies. He implored that is integral to recognize the deep-rooted cultural and historical factors that continue to shape the decisions of its major political and military stakeholders, and that these factors will remain present in the future. Such a conclusion is particularly timely at this moment, as new security policies and projects for the future are being forged the world over.

hosted by Professor Sergey Radchenko


Dr Andrew Monaghan is the founding Director of the Russia Research Network. Additionally, he is a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute in Washington DC, and a Non-Resident Associate Fellow of the NATO Defence College in Rome.

Previously, he has directed research on Russia at Oxford University's Changing Character of War Centre, and at the NATO Defence College. Additionally, he has worked at Chatham House and the UK's Defence Academy, and been both an Academic Visitor at St Antony's College, Oxford and a George F. Kennan Fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute.

He specialises in Russian grand strategy, particularly Moscow's thinking about the future and ways in war.

He is a regular speaker at international conferences and literary festivals. He has also acted as an expert witness to parliaments, including the House of Commons Defence and Foreign Affairs Select Committees and NATO's Parliamentary Assembly, and acted as a consultant to government ministries and militaries in the UK and US, NATO, the EU and to major international companies.

Monaghan is widely published, and his books include Power in Modern Russia - Strategy and Mobilisation (2017), Dealing with the Russians (2019), Russian Grand Strategy in the Era of Global Power Competition (2022) and The Sea in Russian Strategy (2023). His latest, a revised and updated edition of The New Politics of Russia: Interpreting Change, was published in spring 2024.