Labour Will Form the Next British Government

On February 15, 2024, Labour won another two by-election seats from the Conservative Party with a significant 28% swing.

The incumbent Conservative Party is facing strong political headwinds, exemplified by the recent by-elections. The first Labour government since 2010 will alter government priorities – domestically and abroad. This outcome reflects the current Conservative government's failure to address temporal and structural concerns.

Analysis

Labour's by-election wins in Kingswood and Wellingborough – both previously Conservative strongholds – highlight the ongoing lack of support for the Conservatives in the UK. The results support polling data on voting intention. YouGov's polls indicate a 26-point lead for Labour as of February 21, 2024. Additionally, the Conservatives have trailed Labour in YouGov opinion polls since December 2021, with a minimum deficit of 10 points since July 2022. While the declining popularity of the Conservatives can partly be attributed to the leadership crisis, the principal reasons for dissatisfaction with the Conservative government are structural. Given that the next general election must be held no later than January 28, 2025, it is therefore, highly probable that Labour will form the next government.

Polling data from YouGov and Ipsos from February 2024 reveals three key issues Britons identified as important – economic issues, including the rising cost of living; overstretched public healthcare; and poor management of immigration and asylum processes. The structural nature of these issues indicates that the incumbent Conservatives are unlikely to be able to implement any quick fixes to boost their popularity before the next general election.

Pessimistic Economic Outlook Will Punish the Conservatives

The probability of Labour winning the next election has increased given that the UK's main economic problem is high inflation driving the cost of living to rise. The main drivers of inflation are global, with Covid-19 disrupting supply chains and the Russian invasion of Ukraine affecting energy prices. Relative to other developed economies, the UK has been badly hit. At its peak, the UK's annual inflation rate was 11.1% according to Bank of England (BoE) data. Though the annual inflation rate decreased to 4.2% in February 2024, it remains high at approximately double the BoE's target inflation rate of 2%.

The inflationary pressures faced will continue to punish the Conservative government. According to BoE's latest estimates, the UK will only be able to hit its inflation target in early 2025, after the general election. While the inflationary pressures from Covid-19 are dissipating, the Ukraine War continues without an end in sight. Additionally, the volatile situation in Gaza could reignite inflationary pressures in the UK if a serious escalation engulfs the broader Middle East.

Beyond inflation, the UK is also facing a possible economic slowdown in 2024. While inflation remains a significant driver of a possible economic slowdown, longer-term issues like deteriorating infrastructure are also contributing to the increased risk of economic slowdown. The recent cancellation of half of the High Speed 2 rail line will generate greater discontent with the Conservative government over poor infrastructure development.

This ongoing deterioration of infrastructure has been internalised by the UK public, with 56% of Britons assessing the Conservative government's maintenance of infrastructure to be poor according to a September 2023 Ipsos poll. Due to a lack of short-term policy options available, the UK's economic outlook remains pessimistic in the lead-up to the upcoming elections, decreasing the popularity of the incumbent Conservative government.

Structural Disinvestment in the NHS Fuels Public Discontent

Public dissatisfaction with the government's handling of healthcare is high. Since July 2020, more than 50% of the public is dissatisfied with the National Health Service (NHS). Current YouGov polls place dissatisfaction at 80%. The NHS fares poorly on multiple metrics, namely long waiting times for pre-planned and emergency treatment and fewer patients being treated. The NHS' performance has been deteriorating since the Conservatives took over in 2010. While Covid-19 greatly exacerbated problems, the principal cause of deteriorating performance of the NHS is structural underinvestment.

To overcome the lack of available resources, the incumbent Conservative government has dedicated significant funding towards healthcare training and infrastructure development. However, improvements are only expected in the next 5 to 15 years. There is no short-term policy available to drastically improve NHS performance before the upcoming elections.

Continual Failure to Manage Immigration and Asylum

The mismanagement of immigration and asylum processes in the UK remains a common complaint of Britons, with 66% of the public being dissatisfied. Dissatisfaction remains at its highest level since 2015. While the Conservative government has claimed to increase immigration staff numbers, the backlog of immigration and asylum cases has not been successfully reduced. Thus far, the Conservatives have failed to implement a successful asylum policy.

To reduce and deter illegal cross-Channel migration, the Conservative government's proposed policy entails sending asylum seekers to Rwanda. However, this policy has been ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court. Current efforts by the Conservative government to push through its Rwanda policy are facing significant resistance in the House of Lords. Therefore, it remains plausible that the Conservative Party's asylum policy may not be implemented before the next election.

Labour's Election Strategy

Moving forward, the Labour Party's election strategy will capitalise on voters' dissatisfaction with the Conservative Party. The current Labour strategy entails a more consultative approach, tailoring their campaign efforts in accordance with the key issues in each constituency. While Labour's election manifesto has yet to be published as of February 2024, the party's political statements have suggested a focus on the economy and fixing the NHS – key issues for British voters.

Conclusion

The current perception of the majority of UK voters is that the incumbent Conservative government has fared poorly in managing important national issues like the economy, healthcare, and immigration. The short timeframe until the next general election (10 months maximum as of the time of writing) and the lack of stop-gap solutions available will hamper the Conservative Party's efforts to overturn its significant deficit in the polls. Hence, Labour will form the next British Government.




Xavier Tham is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. His current research interests are security and statecraft in the East Asian region. Xavier graduated from the London School of Economics and Political Science with a Bachelor of Science in International Relations.