The days since Donald Trump has been inaugurated as 47
th president of the United States have felt surreal. President Trump has yet again signed executive orders withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization. He has declared national emergency at the Southern U.S. border, which will block parliamentary control of his border policy. He has pardoned more than 1500 of the rioters that stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Most recently, he has imposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China – an unprovoked move that is
likely to hit even the U.S. economy and consumers hard.
Yet, none of this has come as a surprise to the U.S.'s allies. The actions are broadly in line with what Trump had suggested on the campaign trail and since the election. For months, political and thought leaders had
warned that Trump's second term will be more heavily impacted by Trump loyalists. Compared to last time, this term will see almost no establishment Republicans balancing out whatever outrageous ideas Trump's team will pursue – the notorious adults in the room are now
missing.
Instead of despair, however, Europe should seize this opportunity to place greater emphasis on its own sovereignty. After all, the reason Europe has been worrying so much about Trump is ultimately its dependence on the U.S. If Europe was stronger on its own, it could watch with composure how the second Trump presidency unfolds. In such a scenario, European defense spending would cover the continent's security needs. The EU would have a sound common foreign and security policy. It would place an even stronger emphasis on trade and technology alliances with India and many aspiring economies in Southeast Asia. It would strengthen its partnership with China on selected issues of common interest, including rules-based multilateral trade and climate change. The EU would be firmly anchored within the liberal international order.
Of course, it is far from guaranteed that such a scenario will become reality. Europe struggles with populism, too. A recent
article by Heather Grabbe and Jean Pisani-Ferry has described Trump's behaviors as an "existential threat to the European Union itself". The cozy relationship between Elon Musk and Italy's Georgia Meloni and the German Alternative für Deutschland is a case in point.
But there is reason for hope. If history is any indication, EU integration has tended to be strongest when times were rough. This pattern has existed since the post-WWII period, when European economic integration
was seen as a tool to make war between France and Germany "not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible". In the 1970s, challenges like oil shocks, economic crises, and stagflation gave rise to institutional innovation like the creation of the European Monetary System, the manifestation of the primacy of EC law, and renewed powers of the European Council. In the 1990s, the uncertainty after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the question whether and how Germany should be reunified could have broken the European project apart. Instead, the challenges of the time ended up advancing monetary union and anchoring Germany further in the European framework.
Grabbe and Pisani-Ferry call on Europe to increase its defense spending and to uphold the rule of law. The initial reactions of EU and European leaders are showing just that. A day after President Trump's second inauguration, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
reinforced the EU's commitment to the Paris Agreement and signaled openness towards alliances: "Our message to the world is simple: if there are mutual benefits in sight, we are ready to engage with you." French President Emmanuel Macron
announced that France may increase its defense spending well beyond 2 percent of GDP, the NATO spending target. France's defense
spending has been around the 2 percent mark since 2020, but Macron suggests that this may not be "enough to organize ourselves on a European scale and have the means to fight". In a recent Financial Times
op-ed, Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, assure readers that "Europe has got the message". With the Competitiveness Compass, presented in late January, the Commission plans to "fix our weaknesses and regain competitiveness" – EU jargon for getting up, dusting off our shoulders, and carrying on.
The take-away for Europe from Trump's early days in office is, thus, not too bad. The dire messaging coming out of the White House in the next four years will be more than rough. But EU integration has been strongest when times were rough. There is a sense of momentum, and European leaders are ready to take on the challenge. As President von der Leyen
said: "Europe is open for business."
Annabelle Weisser is a Master of European Public Policy student at SAIS Europe. She leads the European Affairs club on campus, which fosters discussion and exchange on Europe and the EU. Prior to SAIS, she worked for a German media and services company in Brussels and Berlin. She holds a master's degree in North American Studies from Free University Berlin.
