ECOWAS Exodus Threatens Europe's Energy Security

On January 28, 2024, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso announced the immediate retreat from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), effectively weakening the already-fragile regional security. The main goal of ECOWAS is to promote economic cooperation and to address common security threats.

The decision of west African states to withdraw from ECOWAS puts Europe's nuclear energy supply at risk. As the internal stability of the three African countries worsens, they will turn to Russia for military support in exchange for exclusive access to their uranium mines. The Russian monopoly on local uranium mines will contribute to a spike in energy prices.

Analysis

The Consequences of the Retreat From ECOWAS

The decision of the juntas governing Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso to leave ECOWAS was influenced by their strengthened ties with Russia, their main international backer. The expulsion of French and US forces from the region contributed to this turn in policy. In a statement released on January 28, 2024, the interim leaders of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso expressed dissatisfaction with ECOWAS and what they claimed was a lack of assistance in preventing terrorism.

The countries' retreat from ECOWAS is detrimental for their security and for that of neighboring states. Without the coordination mechanisms that ECOWAS offered, these countries can no longer share intelligence and counter-terrorism strategies and will struggle to respond to terrorist threats. In 2022, terrorist attacks in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso accounted for 73% of terrorist deaths in the Sahel region and for 52% of all deaths from terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. Terrorist groups like Da'esh, Al Qaida, and their affiliates take advantage of internal instability and popular dissatisfaction to expand their activities across borders.

Russia's Role

The three west African countries signed military cooperation agreements with Russia. Russia pledged to provide these countries with assistance to protect their national sovereignty against terrorist attacks. In the past six months, Russia delivered five L-39 and one Sukhoi-25 jet as well as four Mi-24P helicopter gunships with a four-hundred-strong contingent of mercenaries.

Russian involvement in Africa has a long history, and it primarily took place through private military companies like the Wagner Group. After the death of the Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin sent Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov and the Major General of the Russian military intelligence agency Andrei Averyanov to reassure leaders in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso of the continuation of Russia's military engagements in the region.

The visit reinforced the already-existing military cooperation agreements. Russian aid focuses on combating terrorism and improving the operational efficiency of the national military and law enforcement bodies. This puts the Kremlin in a leading position to train the soldiers and police officers in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Russian private security companies also claim they can carry out quick and effective counter-insurgency operations.

Russian Uranium Mining Control Strategy

In return for its military support, Russia aims to receive concessions for natural resources. The juntas governing Burkina Faso and Niger will follow Mali and reform their mining codes to allow foreign concessions to be seized and then allocated to Russian companies. Russia's official proposal is to use the revenue from mining that would otherwise go to Western companies to increase the presence of Russian private security companies.

Russian private military companies already control gold and lithium mines in the region with plans to manage uranium mines in the next year. The three governments are open to selling the ownership of uranium mines as Russia's interest in dominating global uranium supply grows. In 2022, the mines in Western Africa accounted for a quarter of all European Union uranium imports. Russian control over uranium mines in West Africa will increase global reliance on Moscow for energy. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two countries under the Kremlin's influence, are now among the world's top uranium producers, accounting for almost 50% of the world's mined supply. Combined with the monopoly over Western African mines, Russia could influence 60% of the global uranium market.

Effects on the European Energy Market

A Russian decision to stop exporting uranium to Europe from the regions it has influence over would lead to a supply shortage and an increase in fuel prices. Presently, France, the main consumer of uranium from West Africa, has enough uranium to sustain the current volume of consumption for the next two years. However, a sudden decrease of uranium supply will increase energy prices creating second-order economic risks. Public unrest and disruptions within the internal market will result from the general increase in prices across Europe.

Conclusion

The decision to withdraw from ECOWAS, influenced by the reinforced relationships with Russia, puts Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso at higher risk of instability. The trio's military cooperation agreements with Russia will allow the Kremlin to take control over vital resources like uranium. This increases Europe's vulnerability in terms of securing its uranium needs.




Eleonora L. Cammarano is a Master of Arts in International Affairs candidate at JHU-SAIS. Her main interests lie in the intersection of climate change and conflict, peace and security dynamics, and effective peace interventions. Eleonora obtained her BA in International Affairs with a double minor in Philosophy and Economics from John Cabot University in 2023 after completing a capstone project on Environmental Peacebuilding.