Colombia is No Closer to Peace Deal

The resumption of the previously stalled peace talks between the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and the Colombian government will not lead to an agreement.

The ELN and the government of Colombia released a joint statement on February 5th, 2024, saying that bilateral negotiations would continue following a meeting in Havana. Colombia's largest rebel group suspended talks with government negotiators the previous week after claiming that the government broke the previously agreed-upon terms of the negotiation.

The negotiation terms stipulated that talks would only occur between the government and the ELN's national leadership. ELN negotiations broke off the process after the regional government officials opened a separate negotiation with ELN fighters in the Nariño department. Securing a peace agreement with the ELN is critical for Colombian national security. The ELN has increased its membership and its territorial control by 50% since 2016 and has become the largest armed rebel group in the country. Despite the ongoing negotiation process, it is likely that the violence between the ELN and the government will resume before the parties reach an agreement.

Analysis

In a statement released on February 20, the ELN stated that talks with the government were in an "open crisis" after local officials in the department of Nariño opened negotiations with ELN representatives in the area. The ELN leadership claims that opening negotiations with a regional faction violates the agreement that negotiations would only occur between the government and the ELN's national representatives. The crisis ended after the parties met in Havana and agreed to continue with negotiations rescheduled for April.

Incentives for Violence

The ELN's need for funds to finance their activities will drive a return to violence. The ELN has long used kidnapping and extortion of government, military, and civilian targets as a tactic. On December 17, 2023, the ELN pledged to stop using kidnapping for ransom as a tool to finance their operations. The pledge came at the end of the most recent round of negotiations. The duration of this pledge is unclear, as the ELN requires financing to continue its operations. Colombian officials agreed to provide the group with the funding necessary to cover its basic needs, but the amount offered would only sustain the ELN for three months. The ELN has not perpetrated any kidnappings since they made this pledge, but the demand for money will lead to a resumption of kidnapping and extortion activities once the government funding runs out.

Competition between armed groups will also drive the continuation of violence. The ELN maintains approximately 3,000 combatants and frequently engages in armed attacks on rival groups, including the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and the Gulf Clan. Neither the left-wing FARC nor the right-wing Gulf Clan currently adhere to ceasefire agreements with the government. The immense profits associated with controlling a territory that can be used for trafficking drugs, arms, and people incentivize armed groups, including the ELN, to remain in active conflict. Surrendering and disarming would mean abdicating this lucrative territory to other groups who are more than willing to exploit it. Though the ELN signed a ceasefire agreement with the government, the group has no such agreement with other armed groups with whom it is fighting for territorial control. The fight for territory between armed groups drives violence in the country as these groups battle each other for access to coca fields and drug smuggling corridors. Violence between armed groups will continue indefinitely as they seek to profit from Colombia's drug production and trade.

Limited Government Capacity

President Gustavo Petro campaigned on the platform of ending Colombia's six-decade conflict. His "Total Peace" plan aims to secure ceasefire agreements with the country's numerous armed groups and to encourage disarmament through promises of judicial leniency. Petro initially succeeded in bringing groups to the negotiating table, but the ELN is the only group resisting this call. The Gulf Clan, a paramilitary group and Colombia's most powerful drug trafficking organization, appears unwilling to restart negotiations after their bilateral ceasefire broke down in March 2023. A 2016 peace agreement with the FARC aimed to end the conflict with Colomiba's longest-running armed group, but the limited implementation of the agreement has caused many demobilized FARC members to take up arms again. A current round of negotiations with the FARC is ongoing, but the group similarly continues to violate its bilateral ceasefire with the government. The Total Peace plan appears to be at risk of failing as the government lacks the capacity to manage these simultaneous negotiation processes with Colombia's more than twenty armed groups.

The limited government capacity to negotiate with armed groups is matched by the limited military capacity of the Colombian armed forces. Morale among troops plummeted after Petro dismissed top military officials and cut the military's already shrinking budget. Colombia's military lacks the intelligence capabilities necessary to fully track the activities of armed groups, and this limited intelligence, paired with low troop numbers and limited combat readiness, leaves Colombia with a security problem. The military has historically been the government's only tool to limit the power of armed groups, and the weakening of the military offers an opportunity for armed groups to grow unchallenged. ELN leadership has been clear that it is unwilling to disarm despite engaging in negotiations since November 2022. Leader Antonio Garcia recently announced that his troops would "open fire" on any "enemy advances." The continued militancy and willingness to fire on military forces demonstrate the ineffectiveness of the ongoing negotiation process. It is likely that the ELN will continue to engage in negotiations with the government until the group is no longer able to extract additional concessions before returning to violent resistance.

Conclusion

Continued violent confrontations with rival groups will force the ELN to remain militarized despite engaging in negotiations with the government. The desire to maintain control over territory and resources, coupled with the government's limited capacities to prevent a recurrence of violence, will cause the ELN to break its bilateral ceasefire agreement with the government.




Amelia Thoreson is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. Her current research interests are U.S. national security and inter-American relations. Amelia graduated from the University of Iowa with a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations with a focus on Conflict and Foreign Policy and a Bachelor of Arts in Spanish.