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BIPR | Trump, Harris and the Transatlantic Future: A Roundtable in Honor of SAIS Professor David P. Calleo, 1934-2023
Trump, Harris and the Transatlantic Future: A Roundtable in Honor of SAIS Professor David P. Calleo, 1934-2023
October 21, 2024 - 18:30
Dana H. Allin - Avis T. Bohlen - John L. Harper - Erik Jones - Robert Skidelsky
The roundtable discussion celebrated the legacy of Professor David P. Calleo, one of the most original commentators on international affairs and a strong advocate for European strategic autonomy. John Harper began by reflecting on Calleo's belief that autonomy does not imply a transatlantic divorce, but rather a more self-sufficient Europe. In fact, he recalled that Calleo saw the interstate system within the EU as a healthier and potentially global alternative to hegemonic political systems.
First, Dana H. Allin warned of the ambiguous future of transatlantic relations, especially if Donald Trump were to win a second presidency. He noted that Europeans are unprepared for this scenario. Allin referenced Phillip Gordon, National Security Advisor to Kamala Harris, who was a PhD student under Calleo. Gordon's work emphasized that a realist worldview and close ties with Europe are not contradictory. In fact, Calleo had written that with a stronger Europe, transatlantic relations could constrain American recklessness. However, despite Europe's post-WWII rejuvenation, it still relies on the U.S. both militarily and cognitively, not taking on enough responsibility for its defense capabilities.
Second, Erik Jones built on Calleo's belief that the transatlantic relationship is essential, as global problems are too large for even the most powerful nation to solve alone. However, he contended that the U.S. often acts as an abusive partner, leveraging its hegemonic position to extract economic benefits from Europe. Jones referred to the "weaponization of interdependence," noting how access to the internet, data flows, and financial systems, such as dollar clearing, have been used to enforce U.S. sanctions, much to Europe's detriment. He argued that the only way for Europe to regain balance is to unite and offset U.S. dominance, though this is hindered by the prioritization of national interests. Jones called for a stronger role of the state in industrial development, citing the Draghi Report as a guide for Europe to adopt non-market strategies like tariffs and subsidies to compete globally. Increased cooperation on the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council and a coordinated derisking strategy from China are vital, along with completing the European capital markets union and continuing EU enlargement.
Third, Robert Skidelsky offered a historical analysis, pointing out that Calleo challenged the core tenets of American foreign policy. He drew on Hobbesian ideas about how to create order in an anarchic world, contrasting imperial rule with the balance of power system embraced by Europeans. America, he argued, has never been part of a balance of power system, instead operating as a hegemon. Skidelsky invoked the ideas of Charles Kindleberger, who noted that hegemonic systems are unsustainable because the hegemon lacks the tax-raising capacity of a world government. Calleo agreed, believing U.S. dominance would eventually falter.
Finally, Avis T. Bohlen concluded by highlighting the tense moment this election has created about both in the US and worldwide. She predicted that Trump's second-term staff would be even more loyalist and that he could attempt to end U.S. support for Ukraine, pressure it to cede territory, and raise tariffs. While Harris would likely continue Biden's foreign policy of supporting NATO and Ukraine and maintaining an adversarial stance toward China, Bohlen emphasized that Biden, the last Cold War president, brought a unique generational perspective to transatlantic relations that Harris lacks. She stressed that both U.S. parties are showing fatigue with global leadership, with foreign policy increasingly focused on domestic issues.
The panel unanimously echoed Calleo's sentiment that Europe must assert itself more forcefully as a global power. A more independent Europe, similar to the vision of Charles de Gaulle, could serve as a counterbalance to an overstretched America.
Trump, Harris and the Transatlantic Future: A Roundtable in Honor of SAIS Professor David P. Calleo, 1934-2023
Patrick McCarthy Memorial Series on Intellectuals and Politics
Adjunct Professor, SAIS Europe; Editor of Survival; Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Avis T. Bohlen
Former Assistant Secretary for Arms Control; Former US Ambassador to Bulgaria
John L. Harper
Professor Emeritus, Johns Hopkins University; Senior Adjunct Professor, SAIS Europe
Erik Jones
Director, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute
Robert Skidelsky
Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, Warwick University
David Patrick Calleo (July 19, 1934 – June 15, 2023) was an American political scientist, based at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, where he held the titles of Dean Acheson Professor of European Studies at SAIS and University Professor.
He founded (in 1968) and directed (until 2012) the preeminent American graduate program for the study of contemporary Europe. SAIS European Studies has formed hundreds of professionals working today in government, business, academia, and the press.
Calleo was one of the most thoughtful, multi-faceted, and original scholar-commentators of his generation. His interests ranged from the international economy to transatlantic relations to European integration to the history of ideas. His books include Follies of Power: America's Unipolar Fantasy (2009); Rethinking Europe's Future (2001); The Bankrupting of America (1992); Beyond American Hegemony: The Future of the Western Alliance (1987); The Imperious Economy (1982); The German Problem Reconsidered (1978); America and the World Political Economy (1973); The Atlantic Fantasy (1970); Britain's Future (1968); The American Political System (1968); Coleridge and the Idea of a Modern Nation State (1966); and Europe's Future (1965).
DANA H. ALLIN
Dana H. Allin is Adjunct Professor at SAIS Europe, Editor of Survival and senior fellow for Transatlantic Affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He was Deputy Director of the Aspen Institute Berlin (1993-1997) and Deputy Director of the International Commission on the Balkans (1995-1997). Allin has a PhD in international relations from SAIS and is the author, co-author and editor of various books. He has published articles in Survival, International Affairs, World Policy Journal, The International Herald Tribune, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
AVIS T. BOHLEN
Avis T. Bohlen served for 25 years as a career Foreign Service Officer with the US State Department and 30 years with the US government. Her positions included: Assistant Secretary for Arms Control (1999-2002), Ambassador to Bulgaria (1996-1999), Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Paris (1991-1995). Before that, Bohlen had numerous assignments in the State Department's Bureau of European Affairs, including Deputy Assistant Secretary for Europe in charge of security issues, and also worked on the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff. Over the years, she was involved in policy on a wide range of issues relating to US-European relations, European security issues, arms control and Soviet affairs. Before joining the Foreign Service in 1979, Bohlen worked for the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. She has an MA from Columbia University (1965) and a BA from Radcliffe College (1961). Bohlen was a Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. (2002-2003); Member, International Commission on the Balkans (2004-2006); Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University (School of Security Studies) (2005-2009) and currently works part-time at the Department of State (2006 to present). She was Chair of Board of IREX (International Research and Exchanges) 2003-2013. Other Boards include: American Academy of Diplomacy, American College of Sofia, Henry L. Stimson Center, Arms Control Association, Member Council on Foreign Relations, Century Association. Her publications include: "Rise and Fall of Arms Control," Survival, September, 2003; "Iran: an Opening for Diplomacy?", Survival, October-November, 2015. Bohlen was married to David Calleo, Dean Acheson Professor and Director of European Studies at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies and resides in Washington, D.C.
JOHN L. HARPER
John L. Harper is Senior Adjunct Professor, SAIS Europe, and Professor Emeritus, Johns Hopkins University. Harper has an AB from Haverford College (1972) and PhD from Johns Hopkins SAIS (1981); he was Resident Professor of American Foreign Policy and European Studies at the Bologna Center/SAIS Europe, 1981-2020. He is a member of the Istituto Affari Internazionali; contributing editor, Survival; and former German Marshall Fund Research Fellow. Harper is the author of America and the Reconstruction of Italy, 1945-1948, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986, winner of the Marraro Prize from the Society for Italian Historical Studies, 1987 (published in Italian as: America e la ricostruzione dell'Italia, Bologna: Il Mulino, 1987); American Visions of Europe: Franklin D. Roosevelt, George F. Kennan, and Dean G. Acheson, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994, winner of the Robert H. Ferrell Prize from the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations, 1995; American Machiavelli: Alexander Hamilton and the Origins of U.S. Foreign Policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004; The Cold War, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011 (published in Italian as: La Guerra fredda: un mondo in bilico, Bologna: Il Mulino, 2013; Greek edition by Gutenberg Press, 2021).
ERIK JONES
Erik Jones is Director of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute. Jones is author of The Politics of Economic and Monetary Union (2002), Economic Adjustment and Political Transformation in Small States (2008), Weary Policeman: American Power in an Age of Austerity (2012, with Dana H. Allin), and The Year the European Crisis Ended (2014). He is editor or co-editor of books and special issues of journals on topics related to European politics and political economy including The Oxford Handbook of the European Union (2012) and The Oxford Handbook of Italian Politics (2015). Professor Jones is co-editor of Government & Opposition and a contributing editor of Survival. His commentary has appeared in the Financial Times, the New York Times, and other major newspapers and magazines across Europe and North America.
ROBERT SKIDELSKY
Robert Skidelsky is emeritus professor of political economy at Warwick University. His three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes (1983,1992,2000) won five prizes and his book on the financial crisis – Keynes: The Return of the Master – was published in September 2010. He was made a member of the House of Lords in 1991 (he sits on the cross-benches) and elected a fellow of the British Academy in 1994. How Much is Enough? The Love of Money and the Case for the Good Life, co-written with his son Edward, was published in July 2012. He is also the author of Britain in the 20th Century: A Success? (Vintage, 2014), editor of The Essential Keynes (Penguin Classics, 2015), and co-editor of Who Runs the Economy? (Palgrave, 2016) and Austerity vs Stimulus (Palgrave, 2017) Money and Government(Allen Lane, 2018). He has recently written and filmed a series of lectures on the history and philosophy of economics which will be made available as an open online course in partnership with the Institute for New Economics Thinking. He is now working on a book about automation and the future of work.