The Labour Party Will Win Upcoming UK General Election

The United Kingdom is heading towards a general election that must be held no later than January 2025. The election outcome will transform UK government policy for up to five years and will have a direct effect on the UK's private sector, particularly through anticipated increases in corporate tax rates and regulation.

Analysis

The 2019 general election delivered a Conservative landslide, giving the government a mandate to finalise Brexit. Since then, the political landscape has changed significantly. Currently, the Labour Party is set to win the upcoming general election, polling 24 percentage points ahead of the Conservative Party. The Conservatives' performance while in government, Labour's steadfast campaigning, and the general British political environment are the principal factors that will lead to a political turn-over.

Conservative Party Weakness

Scandals, a mixed performance during the COVID-19 pandemic, and internal fragmentation within the Conservative Party have alienated some of its supporters. Revelations of gatherings among government and Conservative Party staff-members during the pandemic in 2020, multiple MP sexual allegations, accusations of cronyism, regular policy U-turns during the pandemic, and the ousting of two leaders have incurred lasting reputational costs which translate to low voter confidence.

The leadership of the Conservative Party and its membership remain divided. The membership disapproves of Rishi Sunak as he is an unelected Prime Minister who was not chosen by the public or by his party's own members. Consequently, there is a disconnect between government objectives and membership priorities. PM Sunak's focus on illegal immigration while party members and voters show equal dissatisfaction with how legal immigration remains unaddressed has led to a considerable divide. This trend is evidenced by the rise in support for Reform UK, which attracted many of the traditional Conservative voters in the recent Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire by-elections. In addition, disassociation of Conservative supporters is evidenced by low voter turnout. Voter turnout was 35.87% in Tamworth, just under half of 2019's turnout. Labour's Steadfast Campaigning

To foster an image of stability and credibility, Labour Party leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has distanced himself from Jeremy Corbyn and the party's hard left. He reshuffled the Labour Party leadership and adopted an acceptance of Brexit. Although some of Labour's stated policies are novel — such as a pledge to "bulldoze" planning regulations to allow for the construction of more homes — the party has not sought to make headlines with dramatic policies but has instead primarily positioned itself as a competent and stable alternative for those dissatisfied with the Conservative government. This shift to win the centre and present stability over radical policy is a significant factor for Labour's growing favourability.

The party conferences, held in early October, offered both parties the last chance to significantly restyle themselves before the election. Historically, Labour has been the more fractured party at past party conferences, but the atmosphere reflected the strong poll advantage and reinforced the message of party unity. Additionally, Labour's business forum at the party conference in Liverpool had more exhibitors than the Conservatives had in their Manchester conference, signalling greater business support for Labour.

British Political Environment

By-elections are an indicator of future voting preferences that points to a Labour victory. Recent results are particularly indicative. The Conservatives have lost four by-elections in just three months in 2023. Notably, the overturning of Mid-Bedfordshire, a Conservative stronghold since 1931, echoes the fall of the 'red wall' (historically Labour constituencies) in the 2019 general election. Additionally, Labour's victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, a former Scottish National Party seat, signals lingering SNP instability following the resignation of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. The instability associated with SNP's first leadership change in 20 years, coupled with dissatisfaction with the current SNP leader Humza Yousaf, will contribute to Labour's victory.

The public is discontented with the government's economic performance. Labour has communicated that the country's finances are in a dire state due to Conservative mismanagement: welfare costs are surging, the NHS is overburdened, and taxes have been raised to a post-war high. Although progress has been made by the incumbent government in reducing inflation, it is still high by historical standards and remains a pressing issue.

The current government is unable to respond to growing public fatigue of a party that has been in power for over a decade. Rishi Sunak has sought to brand himself as the change candidate, breaking the "30-year status quo," yet there has been no evidence of a substantial shift in policy direction and its realisation has been marginal. The Conservatives have begun to deploy tax cuts, as communicated in the Autumn Statement, whilst Labour currently promises more spending and higher taxes. This presents a paradox as Labour offers continuity with the current government whereas the Conservatives are pivoting towards change. Voters are dissatisfied with the current policy; however, trust in the Conservatives is low. Beyond the desire for policy change there is a strong dissatisfaction with the Conservative party itself which, it is argued, has been in power for too long. It is unattainable for PM Sunak to combat public fatigue from 13 years of consecutive Conservative governments in the limited timeframe before the election.

Conclusion

The Labour party is set to win the next UK general election, largely owing to the strong public desire to oust the Conservative party from government and Labour positioning itself as the most suitable candidate to achieve this. The divided Conservative supporter base means that many will not go to the polls or instead vote for alternatives such as Reform UK, further reducing the Conservative vote share.



Miles Tarrant is a Master of Arts in Global Risk candidate at JHU-SAIS. Prior to attending SAIS, Miles received his BSc in Politics and International Relations at the University of Exeter in July 2023. His main research interests focus on geopolitics, strategy and security.