Romania's Far-Right Will Strengthen in the 2024 Elections

The far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) garnered nearly 20% support in recent polls.

AUR will become the second strongest party in the 2024 parliamentary elections, outperforming the Liberals, and will help the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists Party secure 6 of Romania's 33 seats in the EU Parliament. Although AUR will not be a part of the governing coalition, democratic institutions will deteriorate further and threats to minority rights will expand. Additionally, a stronger AUR voice in parliament will pose more obstacles for Romania's relationship with Moldova and will translate into weaker support for Ukraine and a more fragmented European Union.

Analysis

With local, parliamentary, presidential, and European elections set to take place in Romania next year, the far-right party will shake up domestic and EU politics. AUR espouses strong nationalist and populist rhetoric and defines itself as an anti-corruption party, which attracts those who are frustrated with the political instability and ineffectiveness in the country. Since entering parliament in 2020 with 9% of the vote, the party has more than doubled its support base by capitalizing on the public's discontent and has recently started adapting its narrative to attract more of the moderate voters.

Dissatisfaction With the Current Government

Nearly 70% of Romanians believe that things in Romania are headed in the wrong direction and their dissatisfaction is reflected in the weaker support for the parties in the ruling coalition compared to the results from the 2020 election. The current coalition cabinet consists of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL). These parties disagree on economic issues and have been struggling to keep public finances in check.

Dissatisfaction with the incumbent parties was also visible through protest movements. 150,000 teachers and 60,000-70,000 teaching and auxiliary staff protesting in the spring of 2023 and demanding a 25% increase in salaries. Though the government partially met the teachers' demands, healthcare staff, police and military officers, court clerks and support staff, and employees at the National Institute of Statistics have also organized protests, echoing the same dissatisfaction with low salaries and inadequate governance. Given that expenses in the public sector exceed the income collected by the state, the PSD and PNL are struggling to procure the necessary funds for salaries in the sector. Those who feel disheartened by Romania's current state and the ruling coalition's ability to improve their economic welfare are tempted to give AUR, a newer anti-establishment party, a chance to change the status-quo as the party promises in its populist campaign.

AUR's use of anti-corruption rhetoric amidst corruption scandals is also bound to increase its support in the elections next year as people become more disillusioned with the governing parties. In September, one of the most influential PSD local leaders, Dumitru Buzatu, was caught with a bribe of 1.25 Romanian lei (Є240,000) from a businessman, which Buzatu took in exchange for a public work contract. With a Corruption Perception Index of 46, Romania remains one of the worst performers in the EU in terms of combating corruption and securing integrity in politics. The self-proclaimed anti-establishment AUR party will attract more voters ahead of the elections by capitalizing on the persistent perceptions of rampant government corruption.

Human Rights Divisions

Apart from salaries and corruption, LGBTQ+ rights have also become a focal talking point ahead of the 2024 elections. On November 4th, Elena Lasconi from the progressive Union to Save Romania (USR) party revealed in an interview that she voted in favor of the 2018 referendum to redefine marriage and ultimately ban same-sex marriages in Romania. The interview along with the government's appeal against the ECHR rule concerning 21 same-sex couples advanced the topic of LGBTQ+ rights in pre-election discussions in an unfavorable way for human rights. Although USR and AUR do not compete for the same voter profiles, the recent debate has hurt the former and benefited the latter. While USR has seen a decrease in its support from 14.1% in October to 11.9% in November, AUR has taken advantage of the increased traction of the topic and appealed to those who are apprehensive about a potential expansion of sexual minority rights in Romania.

Attracting the Moderate Voter

AUR opportunistically portrays itself as less radical in the hopes of attracting more moderate voters. In addition to being anti-LGBTQ+, AUR members have also used antisemitic language, and its leader, George Simion, was criticized for admiring Marshal Ion Antonescu who bore great responsibility for the mass killing of Jews and Roma during World War II in Romania. To temper accusations of antisemitism, Simion met with the Israeli ambassador to Romania and rejected being antisemitic. Additionally, in its campaign to attract other nationalist parties, AUR presented the idea that although Christianity is one of its four pillars, the party would welcome new members of different religions.

By employing such strategies in addition to capitalizing on the dissatisfaction with PSD and PNL, AUR seeks to attract more moderate voters and capture more seats in parliament. Presenting a more moderate program is not a sign of substantive changes or a broader moderation of the far-right program in Romania. Support for parties even further to the right of AUR will be picked up by an ultra-radical AUR splinter party, S.O.S Romania. The rise of AUR together with the potential for SOS Romania to pass the 5% threshold will move the Romanian parliament further to the far-right in 2024.

Conclusion

AUR's use of populist tactics and its ability to opportunistically capitalize on the political environment in the country will grant it a stronger voice in the decision-making process in the Romanian and European parliaments. Although other parties do not consider coalitions with AUR that would bring it into government, the party's strengthened presence in the parliament will lead to a more fractured and dysfunctional legislative and will endanger minority rights. The strong nationalist attitudes will also put a significant strain on Romania's relations with Moldova given that AUR advocates for the unification of Romania and Moldova, and it will pose an obstacle for the necessary support for Ukraine as the war continues.



Nadezhda (Nadya) Ivanova is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. Her main research interests focus on the rule of law, party politics, and security issues in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Nadya obtained her BA in Government from Franklin & Marshall College.