Climate Change Exposes Bangladesh to Greater Risk

The World Risk Index 2023 ranks Bangladesh ninth worldwide for climate disaster risk. By 2050, Bangladesh will lose 17% of its territory due to rising sea levels, resulting in the loss of 30% of the country's agricultural land. The rise of sea levels in coastal areas is prompting people to migrate into cities. Climate migrants are subjected to poor living conditions, contributing to higher levels of poor health, food insecurity, and national poverty. Cities in Bangladesh are ill-prepared to receive climate migrants, contributing to an international migration crisis and impacting neighboring countries.

Analysis

Migration From Rural to Urban Areas Will Increase

The melting of the Himalayan glaciers threatens the river system in Bangladesh, causing severe flooding and water logging in 55% of the country's area. Given that Bangladesh is among the most densely populated countries, urban areas are unfit to host more people.

Four major cities – Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, and Rajshahi – have absorbed 90% of the country's migrant population. As of 2021, 1,301 people live in Bangladesh per square kilometer compared to 992 people per square kilometer in 2000, and the population density in the capital was over 20,000 people per square kilometer that year. The overpopulation in cities, the lack of employment opportunities, and the inadequate work conditions compel climate migrants to take low-skilled jobs and lead to 4.4 million people living in slums. The urban climate migrants are exposed to "double insecurity" as finding employment and bearing shelter costs is becoming increasingly difficult.

Bangladesh's rapid and forced urbanization is outpacing the necessary infrastructure development, exacerbating daily challenges. Fewer employment prospects reduce human security, heightening tensions between local and migrant populations and increasing urban crime levels.

Increased Food Insecurity Will Lead to Poor Health Outcomes

Over 85% of rural Bangladeshi households rely on agriculture for their livelihood. Floods, droughts, and changes in rainfall due to climate change will negatively impact food and nutritional security as farmers' dependence on groundwater and pesticides increases and agricultural outputs decrease. Changing temperatures are damaging the coastal rice production areas. The total rice production in Bangladesh is projected to be reduced every year by 7.4% until 2050. Any loss or degradation of agricultural land intensifies the livelihood insecurity in rural areas. The Bangladeshi government has no clear operational policies on how farmers can absorb the pressure presented by climate change and prevent upcoming insecurities.

The consequences of climate change are eroding the progress made in the healthcare sector and make it harder for Bangladesh to combat poverty and pursue economic growth. Air pollution is high due to garment factory emissions, factory fire outbreaks, and agricultural pesticides. Air pollution increases morbidity and mortality from respiratory infections, lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases, which constitute 18% of deaths in Bangladesh. In addition to air pollution, Bangladeshi cities are at risk of severe flooding and outbreaks of waterborne diseases. The population of Dhaka has been struggling with a dengue outbreak since 2019, which is projected to worsen in the upcoming years due to climate change. Bangladesh's government will have a severe public health crisis in the coming years, and it will only worsen as population density in cities continues to increase.

Increasing Societal and Geopolitical Tensions

The majority of rural Bangladesh comprises religious Hindus, and with climate migration to cities, the risk of conflicts increases. Since 2007, Islamist groups have been on the rise due to majoritarian politics that have led to higher inter-religious tensions. As rural Hindus migrate to Muslim-majority cities for employment, the displacement stress combined with communal tension creates an atmosphere of conflict.

The rise of terrorist groups like Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) in drought-prone areas like the Rajshahi division across the Indian border has led to greater geopolitical tensions between India and Bangladesh. Weak local governance provided an opportunity for JMB to propagate violent religious fundamentalism along international borders. Climate change is putting pressure on governance and reduces citizens' trust in public institutions.

As Bangladeshi Muslims continue to migrate to the neighboring predominantly Hindu country, tensions between the two nations persist. The upcoming national elections in India and Bangladesh are set to take place in 2024, and no real resolution of the immigration issue is expected. Tensions along the religious dimension will contribute towards low Indian investment in Bangladesh. Bangladesh will lose a solid, crucial ally whose support could improve Bangladesh's mitigation and adaptation measures for climate change.

Conclusion

The link between climate change, economic instability, food insecurity, and the rise in geopolitical tensions makes Bangladesh's economy weak and vulnerable. Bangladesh is not prepared for the spillover effects caused by climate change. The lack of resources and ineffective governance will hinder its capacity to respond effectively to climate change. Climate change increases the likelihood of conflict in Bangladesh and with its neighboring countries.



Amruta Veer is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. Her main interests focus on pressing issues in South Asia in the areas of development, sustainability, climate change, and international economics and finance. She obtained her BA in International Studies from the Foundation for Liberal Arts and Management Studies (FLAME) University in India.