Sino-Japanese Tensions Will Escalate in the East China Sea
In early March 2024, the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force
scrambled fighter jets in response to suspected airspace intrusions in the East China Sea. This is part of a decades-long dispute between China and Japan regarding competing claims over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. While, at present, neither side seeks an extreme escalation of tensions, conflict is increasingly likely within the next decade.
Analysis
The Senkaku Islands (referred to as Diaoyu Islands in China) are a potential flashpoint for conflict in the next decade. Currently, Japan administers the islands, while China claims sovereignty over them. Both sides endow the islands with national significance, have increased their military presence in the region, and rely on inadequate mechanisms to avoid costly escalation. When conflict erupts, it will have far-reaching implications for the geopolitical landscape of East Asia and beyond.
Nationalism and National Pride
The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are a symbol of deeply rooted national pride for both Tokyo and Beijing. In 2012, the Consul Generals of
Japan and
China in Sydney engaged in a diplomatic argument through official communications detailing their respective governments' positions regarding the dispute. Tokyo asserts that the Senkaku Islands were
terra nullius and peacefully annexed in 1879, while Beijing argues that Japan seized the Diaoyus through military aggression during the first Sino-Japanese War. Further complicating matters, both Consul Generals outlined differing understandings of a series of international agreements signed after World War II. According to Beijing, the islands are a part of the rogue Taiwan province and were returned to China as part of the Cairo Declaration and Potsdam Proclamation; neither explicitly mentions the islands. According to Tokyo, the islands are independent of Taiwan and were put under Japanese administrative control following a series of international agreements between Japan and the US; China was not a party to these agreements. These contrasting narratives set the stage for the disputed future of the islands.
Recent public opinion polling emphasizes the dispute's influence on forming nationalist attitudes and worsening tensions between the two nations. A
2023 Genron NPO survey revealed a deepening of nationalist sentiment in Japan and China regarding the dispute. It revealed that 92.2% of Japanese participants (up from 87.3%) and 62.9% of Chinese participants (up from 62.6%) have unfavorable opinions of the other country. A
similar poll in 2021 indicated that 56.7% and 62.4% say their negative views are due to the ongoing territorial dispute.
Escalating Tensions and Military Presence
Both countries' ongoing military build-up and assertive posturing indicate that tensions in the East China Sea will likely persist. Japanese control of the territory remained largely undisputed until 2010, when, in September of that year, a Chinese fishing vessel and a Japanese Coast Guard ship were involved in a collision near the islands. Since then, both nations have steadily increased their military presence in the area. Instances of Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) patrols in the contiguous waters around the islands reached an
all-time high in 2023 with 1,287 incursions, including a 134-day uninterrupted presence. Meanwhile, the Japanese
expanded their military presence in the Ryukyu archipelago to deter Chinese actions in the ECS.
This escalation was further intensified in November 2023 when President Xi Jinping instructed the CCG to "
constantly strengthen" Beijing's regional claims. Consequently, the CCG's East China Sea Command formulated plans to maintain a daily presence in the contested waters throughout 2024 and began warning the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to vacate the waters and airspace around the islands. Tokyo immediately responded to this development through diplomatic channels in an apparent attempt to avoid further deterioration of the already tenuous bilateral relationship.
Conflict De-escalation Mechanisms
Due to practical and design limitations, the effectiveness of existing de-escalation mechanisms remains uncertain. In April 2014, naval forces across the Pacific, including China and Japan, endorsed the
Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES). This code prescribes conduct protocols and communication strategies to maintain safety during unforeseen interactions. However,
no bilateral drills have occurred to ensure the respective militaries understand its application. Without the necessary exercises, militaries are left to apply the method during real-time disputes, often under heightened tensions.
In May 2018, the two nations agreed to implement the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism (MACM), which became
active in March 2023. They designed the MACM to avoid unintended and potentially escalatory encounters between their military forces. However, the MACM only established communication between the defense authorities, not military members. These limitations leave the possibility of conflict at the tactical level, suggesting that more comprehensive measures may be needed for effective conflict prevention.
Shifting Regional Power Dynamics
The Chinese Communist Party aims to achieve military modernization to counter US military primacy and shift the regional balance of power in its favor. The US-Japan Security Treaty, US military bases in Japan, and successive US presidents recognizing Japan's administrative control over the Senkaku Islands have deterred Chinese aggression thus far. Moreover, China's strategic focus on Taiwan requires the bulk of its resources, mitigating the current threat of a protracted conflict with Japan. However, by 2035, the geopolitical landscape of East Asia will shift as the People's Liberation Army achieves its modernization efforts and could move to gain control over Taiwan by force, should diplomacy fail. As a result, Japan's claim to the islands will be increasingly challenged by a more confident and assertive China.
Conclusion
National pride rooted in 150 years of history, 15 years of escalating tensions, the inevitable shift in regional power dynamics, and the inherent limitations in real-time crisis management mechanisms make conflict between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands increasingly likely. The escalation of the ongoing standoff will reshape international affairs.
Ray Bowling is a Master of Arts in Global Risk candidate at JHU-SAIS. His main areas of interest are power dynamics, grand strategy, and alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Ray earned his BA in International Politics from Pennsylvania State University.
