Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia Will Deteriorate

Azerbaijan is seeking to gain control of the Zangezur Corridor. A military action by Azerbaijan to open the Zangezur Corridor will result in a conflict with Armenia in which Turkey and Iran will support opposing sides. Such a conflict will further strain diplomatic efforts in other regions, leading to a deepening of the humanitarian crises in Ukraine and Israel. Deteriorating relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia will have a detrimental impact on energy supplies and trade routes.

Analysis

In September 2023, Azerbaijan seized control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, yet governed by ethnic Armenians since 1994. Over 100,000 ethnic Armenian residents fled the region after the lightning military campaign. Armenians and Western officials increasingly fear that Baku's offensive is not over; Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated that opening the Zangezur Corridor is a top objective for his state.

Competing Economic Interests

The Azeri government considers the Zangezur corridor to be of strategic economic significance. Azerbaijan and Turkey have been advocating for the creation of the corridor since 2020. If realized, the initiative would establish a connection from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and link Turkey to China and Central Asia by traversing Armenia's Syunik Province. For Armenia, such an arrangement would constitute occupation of its territory. Azerbaijan's desire to establish the land route and Armenia's wish to protect its territorial integrity and assert its sovereignty would trigger a greater regional conflict.

Both Azerbaijan and Turkey have significant economic interests in the establishment of the Zangezur corridor. They have employed assertive rhetoric, emphasizing the corridor's necessity despite Armenia's opposition. With Armenia's strained relationship with Russia, stemming from Moscow's failure to fulfill its 2020 commitment to protect Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Turkey now encounter reduced deterrence in the region. Furthermore, Russia perceives the Zangezur corridor as an opportunity to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions by securing an alternative transport route after being cut off from Western pathways. This alignment of interests with Azerbaijan strengthens Moscow's support for the corridor. The evolving dynamics create a strategic incentive for Azerbaijan to exploit the regional realignment and potentially pursue a military campaign to achieve its objectives.

Military Exercises

The risk of a renewed military confrontation in the Southern Caucasus grows as Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to be at an impasse, unable and unwilling to find common ground regarding transportation routes. Despite a meeting between Baku and Yerevan on October 23, 2023, where both sides officially declared the resolution of the conflict, Azerbaijan undertook joint military exercises involving 3,000 troops alongside Turkey on both flanks of Armenia on the same day. Concurrently, Armenia entered into an agreement with France to acquire modern air defense systems, addressing a capability gap that had given Azerbaijan a significant advantage in the 2020 war.

Despite a statement from a senior Azerbaijani official expressing a preference for a land route through Iran instead of Armenia, Azerbaijan's actions raise doubts about its true intentions. The display of military strength through joint drills, persistent rhetoric claiming Southern Armenia as Azeri territory, and President Aliyev's withdrawal from a meeting with Armenia in Brussels contradict the stated commitment to abandon the Zangezur Corridor objective.

The 2005 agreement to build the North-South Corridor through Iran is yet to be completed. The project is not economically feasible as Tehran lacks the funds for the construction. Russia, the only country willing to invest in the North–South Corridor, has committed to fund only $1.7 billion of the estimated $5 billion cost. The implausible alternative route through Iran and Azerbaijan's sustained interest in the Zangezur Corridor over the past two decades despite the North-South Corridor agreement show that Baku will continue to pursue the corridor through Armenia.

Tehran has consistently opposed the Zangezur corridor, as it would diminish profits from gas contracts with Turkey and Azerbaijan by enabling them to bypass Iran. This proposed corridor along Iran's border with Armenia would impede free trade and traffic between the two regional allies. In 2022, Iran deployed 50,000 troops to the Zangezur border zone, signaling its readiness to respond if the established territorial status quo is disrupted.

Effects of the Israel-Hamas War

The war in Israel is increasing the risk of tensions escalating between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Azeri government is in the position to benefit from Iran's preoccupation with the situation in Israel and initiate a military campaign to forcefully establish control over the Zangezur corridor. A military initiative by Azerbaijan would trigger Iran's response, activating the Baku-Ankara mutual defense pact and increasing the risk for a direct confrontation between Iran and Turkey. Given that the Southern Caucasus is an important region for energy and trade routes, a conflict involving major regional powers would disrupt the economies of bordering states and those that rely on energy supplied from the Caspian Sea.

International attention is diverted by the conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war. The sheer proximity of these conflicts intensifies the challenge of managing multiple crises simultaneously, potentially giving Azerbaijan the impetus to act sooner rather than later.

Conclusion

Azerbaijan's maximalist approach, Turkey's interest in the region, and Russia's new position in international energy routes will embolden Baku to take military action against Armenia. Such an action will solicit Iran's response, effectively widening the conflict and deteriorating regional stability, global economic activity, and diplomatic peace building efforts.



Nadezhda (Nadya) Ivanova is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. Her main research interests focus on the rule of law, party politics, and security issues in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Nadya obtained her BA in Government from Franklin & Marshall College.