Dam Completion Will Elevate Egypt-Ethiopia Tensions

On September 10, 2023, Ethiopia announced the completed filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The construction of the dam had been long opposed by Egypt. The escalation of tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia will destabilize the region and catalyze a complex humanitarian disaster.

Analysis

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a hydroelectric power plant built on a tributary of the Nile River. After a decade of protracted negotiations on managing the dam, its construction remains a point of contention between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The dam, which could restrict water flow to downstream countries, poses an existential threat to Egypt because of the Nile's water resources and cultural importance. In Ethiopia, the dam is a source of national pride and economic opportunity. Sudan has a stake in the dam, located near the Ethiopia-Sudan border, as a downstream river country that relies on the Nile, yet Sudan has been less engaged because of its ongoing civil war.

Tensions will escalate between Ethiopia and Egypt over the dam for three reasons: the diminishing prospect of compromise over water sharing due to the GERD's completion without a regional agreement, the role of identity politics based on the Nile's cultural significance, and national security concerns. The absence of peaceful negotiations may result in an armed conflict. Increased hostility between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD's management will destabilize the region.

Failed Negotiations

The GERD has been at the crux of regional disagreements. Prospects for a resolution decreased while the likelihood of confrontation increased with the recent filling of the dam. Since 2012, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have been convening to examine the dam's impact and management mechanisms. Negotiations towards mutually satisfying governance structures of the dam and its water sources have failed.

Egypt will suffer the economic brunt of diminished access to water. In 2021, Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, said that obstructing Egypt's water access to the Nile is "a red line." That statement was overlooked by Ethiopia. The timing of the GERD filling will only make consensus building harder; Ethiopia is less inclined to diverge from its preferred status quo. Egypt now has greater incentives to escalate tensions into full-fledged military action.

Identity Politics

National identity politics surrounding the GERD and its implications for the Blue Nile River make agreement over resource sharing challenging. In Ethiopia, the GERD's construction took place despite an ongoing civil war, corruption scandals, and a devastating drought impacting approximately 24 million people. The Ethiopian government portrays the dam as a symbol of national hope, unity, and pride.

Ethiopia accuses Egypt of enforcing its hegemony over the Nile based on colonial-era treaties. The Ethiopian government thus attempts to unify Ethiopians around the GERD against countries that may be seen as challenging the nations' independence. The GERD's symbolic significance for Ethiopia contributes to the government's unwillingness to compromise. In turn, this frustrates Egyptians whose national identity is closely entwined with the Blue Nile.

For many Egyptians, the Blue Nile waters are a source of national pride, increasing peoples' quality of life. Article 44 of the Egyptian constitution underscores the Blue Nile's significance noting how "the State shall protect the Blue Nile River, preserve Egypt's historical rights thereto, rationalize, and maximize its use."

The Egyptian government highlighted its concern that the GERD will adversely disrupt the country's "historical rights" to the Blue Nile's water supply after the failed 2020 American-brokered negotiations on the construction of the dam. Egypt's Foreign Ministry stated that Egypt would use "all available means" to defend Egyptians' access to the Nile.

National Security and Natural Resources

Many Ethiopians perceive that the GERD will allow their country to advance its "national hidden potential" and use Ethiopia's natural resources to develop. The GERD aims to reduce poverty and provide millions of people with access to electricity in Ethiopia where 56 percent or approximately 67 million Ethiopians do not have electricity. The Embassy of Ethiopia in Washington D.C. stated that using the dam is "not a matter of choice, but an imperative of continued existence." The Ethiopian government's perception of the GERD as an imperative of continued existence underscores the dam's role in Ethiopia's national security.

Egypt sees the dam as posing an existential threat to its national security. The Egyptian government anticipates a detrimental effect on the river's water flow due to the GERD's operation and an ensuing substantial risk to access to clean water for millions of people. Egypt already encounters water shortage as it struggles with climate change effects and increased water pollution. A growing population depends on the Blue Nile for approximately 86 percent of their water needs. Additionally, the United Nations stated that "Egypt could run out of water by 2025," which will lead to a water crisis.

Ethiopia's unwillingness to compromise on the GERD's water management intensifies Egypt's security concerns. Egypt's frustration that Ethiopia constructed and filled the dam without developing an agreement with downstream countries that depend on the Blue Nile exacerbates tensions in the region.

Conclusion

Years of diplomatic attempts to agree on the management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have failed. The dam's unsatisfactory status quo for Egypt together with Ethiopia's refusal to compromise will bring tensions to a boiling point. The construction and operation of the dam increases the likelihood of an armed conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia.


Sophie Haas-Goldberg is a Master of Arts in International Relations at JHU-SAIS. Her main research interest lies in the humanitarian-development-peace nexus. After obtaining her BA in International Studies from Dickinson College, Sophie worked in the U.S. Agency for International Development's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance focusing on humanitarian emergencies in Venezuela, Ukraine, and Ethiopia.