Protests Encourage Democratization in Guatemala

On August 20^th, 2023, Bernardo Arévalo won 60% of the votes in the Guatemalan presidential elections. Following his victory, Attorney General María Consuelo Porras raised accusations of electoral fraud and launched an investigation into the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Since Porras' investigation, indigenous groups have led nationwide protests demanding her resignation and supporting the democratically elected Arévalo. International actors have condemned Porras' actions as anti-democratic, further feeding Arévalo's anti-corruption campaign that won him the election.

Analysis

The international community and human rights organizations signaled the potential for democratic backsliding in Guatemala amidst reports of corruption, human rights violations, and persecution of journalists. Over the past year, opposition candidates had been barred from continuing their presidential campaigns following allegations of criminal conduct, sowing doubts about Guatemala's ability to conduct free and fair elections.

Symbol for Democratization

President-elect Arévalo, who is the leader of the Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement) has emerged as a symbol of democracy that protesters rallied behind. The son of Juan José Arévalo, the first democratically elected president of Guatemala in 1945, Arévalo ran on an anti-corruption campaign that mobilized voters. His victory came against the backdrop of Attorney General Porras' efforts to undermine his electoral campaign in the run up to the elections. Arévalo's anti-corruption platform and promise for sweeping political reforms won him broad support, and ultimately, the election.

Although the voter turnout was predictably low, data showed broad support for Arévalo and his campaign for political change. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal reported a 45% voter turnout for the 2023 election, a decrease from 53% in 2019 and 69% in 2015. However, a CID Gallup public opinion poll found that 52% of respondents believed the country would improve under Arévalo's leadership, signaling broad support among citizens in the lead-up to the elections.

Internal Defection

Attorney General Porras has continued to lose political support as local protests have attracted more international attention to the situation. Porras' investigation into the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and the confiscation of voter information following Arévalo's victory prompted the TSE to ask the Supreme Court of Justice for an injunction. The TSE condemned Porras' actions, indicating a further divide in the current administration. While Porras and outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei claim protests are violent and causing supply chain disruptions, journalists and other observers describe protests as peaceful and state that confrontations between the police and protesters are rare. Protest blockades allow essential supplies and personnel to pass through.

Law enforcement support for Arevalo's contenders has also waned. In early October 2023, the Minister of Governance Napoleón Barrientos resigned after refusing to follow Porras' recommendation to use military force against protesters. Military personnel have conceded to protesters' blockades allowing them to remain against direct orders. Growing political divides and defections are fueling protesters who see this moment as a prime opportunity to demand reforms of the weakening government.

Indigenous Leadership

The indigenous population in Guatemala makes up almost half of the population. With the second-highest indigenous population in Latin America, indigenous people have little representation in the government. They continue to face extreme poverty and marginalization in politics, education, and health systems. These conditions have bred a hostile relationship between indigenous communities that demand sweeping reforms and the government.

Protests led by indigenous leaders show no sign of slowing down. Protests have entered their third month since the first demonstration on July 24^th, which took place after the start of the investigation into Arévalo's campaign by Attorney General Porras. The 2023 presidential election cycle has been fraught with contention from the outset with smaller protests erupting in February after the initial barring of candidates. Despite President Giammattei acknowledging Arévalo's victory and displaying no indications of impeding Arévalo's assumption of office in January 2024, protests persist.

Protest leaders are calling for the resignation of Attorney General Porras, citing actions perceived as corrupt and politically motivated. The public outcry has intensified due to President Giammattei's reluctance to directly request Porras' resignation. Additionally, indigenous leaders persist in their refusal to meet with President Giammattei, contributing to the escalation of civil unrest.

International Pressure

In late October 2023, the U.S. Department of State Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian A. Nichols traveled to Guatemala to meet with President-elect Bernardo Arévalo and indigenous protest leaders to discuss the prospects of a peaceful transfer of power in January 2024.

Mounting internal and external pressures are compelling government leaders to yield to the sole demand of protesters: the resignation of Attorney General Porras. Internally, the current administration faces heightened pressure as protest blockades contribute to reported shortages of food and gas across the country. Externally, the U.S., the Organization of American States (OAS), and the United Nations among others have urged a peaceful transfer of power from President Giammattei to Arévalo while condemning the actions of Porras.

Conclusion

Arévalo's victory and subsequent actions by the Attorney General have provided a political opening for protesters. Widespread demonstrations, spearheaded by indigenous leaders, are attracting global attention and intensifying domestic calls for government reforms. Internal defections, existing sanctions on political figures, international backing for the protesters, and mounting pressure against the government are complicating President Giammattei's stance in support of Attorney General Porras.

Porras' conduct is portrayed as a threat to democratic progress in Guatemala and an alleged coup attempt. Indigenous leaders are steadfast in their refusal to collaborate with government officials and are committed to sustaining nationwide protests until Porras resigns. The protests, orchestrated by indigenous groups and leaders across Guatemala, present formidable opposition to the political elites, highlighting the ineffectiveness of their efforts to cling to power.



Idalis Moscoso is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. Her research interests are governance of emerging technologies and AI and international responses to conflict-related human rights abuses. She currently works as a Research Intern for the Human Trafficking Initiative at BIPR and is Editor-in-Chief for the SAIS Europe Journal of Global Affairs.