Water Scarcity Will Drive Regional Conflict in South India

India experienced an 8% deficit in rainfall during its 2023 monsoon season. The annual monsoon is responsible for replenishing the water supply of the Cauvery River, which directly supports 4.4 million people and is used to produce the grain that feeds millions more. Low water levels will amplify the economic struggle of regional farmers and further inflame historical feuds between riparian states.

Analysis

Historical Impact of Violence

Tensions will continue to escalate between the states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, which are the Cauvery River's primary dependents. The latter is the lower riparian state, making it reliant on the former to release water from its dams. As the impact of the climate crisis has significantly reduced the Cauvery's water levels, Karnataka has increasingly resisted granting Tamil Nadu any access to the river's water.

Present day tensions stem from the 1991 anti-Tamil violence that transpired in the Karnatakan cities of Bangalore and Mysore, where Tamil businesses and neighborhoods were targeted and burned. In the span of a month, sixteen Tamilians were killed and thousands fled the state. This violent episode was in response to the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal's landmark ruling that Karnataka must release 5.8 km3 of water to Tamil Nadu.

Although tensions have not reached similar intensity, animosity between the two states persists and there have been numerous cases of targeted violence against civilians from both states. After a similar ruling in 2016 by the Indian Supreme Court ordering Karnataka to release 12,000 ft3 of water per second to Tamil Nadu for roughly a week, cars originating from the latter state were pelted with stones and lit on fire, leaving at least one dead; Tamilians have retaliated with similar violence.

Sporadic instances of violence have since continued. In September, 2023, farmers in Karnataka burned effigies of Tamil Nadu's Chief Minister M. K. Stalin after a drought period. This ongoing violence reflects the extent to which citizens will mobilize in order to secure what they believe to be their resource. If the annual monsoon continues to bring diminished amounts of rain, the Cauvery's extant waters will become increasingly valuable to both states. Therefore, the violence between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu is likely to persist as both states express dissatisfaction with the current water sharing arrangement.

Impact on the Agricultural Sector

The failed monsoon also increases the risk that farmers will lose large portions of their crops, as the agriculture sectors in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are dependent on a healthy Cauvery River. These farmers are particularly vulnerable because 90% are small agro-businesses that are less than 2.5 square hectares. Thus, farmers cannot overcome major losses in annual revenue. Moreover, farmers are also vulnerable to flooding because the Cauvery Basin has lost 12,850 km2 of vegetation since 1965.

If monsoons continue to yield below expected amounts of rain, Indian farmers – a group that has already demonstrated its ability to mobilize during the nationwide 2020-2021 protests – will take to the streets once again to call for government assistance and environmental interventions.

Ineffective Interventions

The Supreme Court and the governments of both states have struggled to devise a water sharing solution. The default solution has been for the Supreme Court to order Karnataka's government to release greater amounts of water to Tamil Nadu. However, this has only amplified anger towards Tamilians and made the two states less willing to negotiate a compromise.

As recently as September 2023, Karnataka refused to continue to comply with the Supreme Court's 2018 verdict that the Cauvery is a "national asset" and must be shared according to the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal's water-sharing arrangements. Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister flatly stated, "I'm making it clear that we don't have water," and cited the need to "save water for drinking purposes, apart from addressing the farmer's plight." 15 of the years between 2001-2019 were drought years in Karnataka, causing the Cauvery to shrink substantially. As of January 2024, the Cauvery's four major dams were on average only at 40.25% of their maximum capacities.

These circumstances have forced both states to act exclusively in their own interests, and discord has bled into the execution of other interventions. For instance, in 2015, Karnataka initiated plans to construct the Mekedatu Reservoir, which would store 48 TMC (thousand million cubic feet) of drinking water sourced from the Cauvery. This plan was swiftly met with a protest from Tamil Nadu, which claimed that the reservoir would further disrupt the state's access to the Cauvery. Even after Karnataka assured that predetermined water quantities would continue to flow to its southern neighbor, Tamil Nadu refused to accept any reservoirs, dams, or any form of construction on the Cauvery without the Supreme Court's approval.

The subsequent non-response from the Supreme Court has undermined its ability to broker an acceptable solution for both states regarding the reservoir. Even if the court did issue a ruling, it has no enforcement mechanism, as it is the president who is expected to ensure a ruling's fair execution.

Conclusion

Equitable access to the Cauvery's waters will become one of South India's most pressing environmental challenges. As a result of the persistent violence over the limited access to the Cauvery, the inefficacy of interventions, and the pressing water needs of farmers in the region, tensions will continue to surge between the numerous stakeholders and governments involved.




Adi Prakash is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. His regional focus is Asia, and he is interested in interstate diplomacy and language acquisition. Adi obtained his BA in international relations from American University in Washington D.C.