Violence in Haiti will Increase in 2024

As political groups in Haiti consolidate power, the country will face a significant increase in violence this year, which will heighten the risk of a humanitarian crisis by exacerbating displacement and food insecurity.

January 2024 marked one of the bloodiest months for Haiti in the last two years. With more than 1,108 deaths and injuries in just 31 days, Haiti's death toll is three times higher than the previous January. By March, the casualties resulting from gang violence reached over 1,500 deaths. As incidences of murder rise for the fifth consecutive year and insurgent groups continue to consolidate power, the country is poised to experience further violence. Such developments heighten the risk of a humanitarian crisis.

Weak governance, economic instability, and an overwhelmed police force have created an environment where armed groups can expand their influence unrestrained. This peak in violence not only threatens lives but also disrupts essential services such as education, health, and humanitarian aid — which 5.5 million Haitians depend on in 2024. Consequently, much of the population will be deprived of basic needs and will be put at greater health risks. The disruption will exacerbate the cycle of poverty and instability, hindering any potential for recovery and development.

Analysis

Currently, 80% of Port-au-Prince along with nearly half of the rest of Haiti, is under the control of armed groups. Citizens in these areas experience severe human rights abuses as a result of increasing violence. The G-9 gang, for example, has spread terror since 2020 by using snipers to kill civilians, setting fire to public transportation vehicles, and killing children in classrooms and homes.

A Governance Vacuum

Amidst the escalating violence, Haiti faces a critical situation in which no leadership has emerged capable of reinstating order. Since President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, political turmoil has heightened, homicide rates have tripled, and the number of kidnappings has increased by 2,673%. Plans to hold elections after the assassination have been delayed multiple times due to disagreements over the electoral process and the critical situation on the ground. As a result, Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who took office shortly after Moïse's assassination, has not been elected through a formal electoral process. Additionally, the term of the senators representing the country expired in January 2023. This has left Haiti without elected members in the House or Senate, making it impossible for the government to address security concerns or restore essential services. Consequently, a pervasive sense of lawlessness prevails in Haiti, as the absence of elected officials has created an accountability vacuum. With no concrete plans for political stabilization, the violence will continue to increase, deepening the existing crisis.

Economic Instability

With 59% of the population facing poverty and 44% experiencing food insecurity, Haiti's economic instability is poised to fuel this increase in violence. As the majority of citizens struggle to meet their basic needs, armed groups have an easier time exploiting the population's vulnerabilities and recruiting people in exchange for resources and opportunities. Additionally, as a large portion of the population struggles to survive, tensions rise, and conflict over resources intensifies. As these factors intersect and exacerbate each other, Haiti faces a dangerous cycle where economic hardships heighten violence and further stifle development.

Overwhelmed Police Force

With approximately 9,000 officers tasked with maintaining order for a population of over 11 million, the police are outnumbered and outgunned. In early March, a prison break of 3,597 inmates from an overcrowded prison designed to house 700 detainees further exacerbated the issue, releasing thousands of violent criminals back into the population. Additionally, the disbanding of the military in 1995 left a security vacuum, further straining the police force's ability to combat gang activity.

The departure of more than 3,300 officers since the beginning of 2021, many due to the threats posed by gangs, has resulted in an overwhelmed law enforcement struggling to combat not only violence but also internal corruption. Because of the low government wages, criminal networks have faced little resistance to infiltrating the police force, and there have been a number of cases in which senior officials have been exposed for collaborating with gangs. Without adequate resources, training, and staffing, the police force is unable to combat the escalating violence, creating a dangerous environment where armed brigades are filling the void left by law enforcement.

Conclusion

The sustained violence perpetrated by non-state armed groups, fueled by weak governance and economic instability, will further disrupt the delivery of critical humanitarian aid via roadblocks and illegal seizures. Acute hunger and poverty will increase, compounded by an overwhelmed and corrupt police force unable to provide security. The lack of security will discourage foreign investment, hindering economic development that could offer relief from poverty and improve living standards for Haitians.




Delaney Zambrano is a Diploma in International Studies candidate at JHU-SAIS. She has a background in social impact communication from roles at organizations like the United Nations Association, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. After graduating from SAIS, Delaney will embark on a six-month fellowship with the UN's World Food Program in Nicaragua. She holds a master's in Global Strategic Communications and a bachelor's in Advertising and Event Management from the University of Florida. Delaney is passionate about merging her academic pursuits with her drive for societal and environmental change.