European parliamentary elections are often said to reflect national political sentiment. In France, the far-right Rassemblement National received twice as many votes as the party alliance of French President Emmanuel Macron. He took his party's defeat as a sign of public dissatisfaction with his own governance and dissolved the National Assembly – which does not touch his own position as president – in response and called for snap elections, ostensibly to challenge the electoral outcome or highlight the dangers of an extreme right-wing party in power. However, his move is seen as a high-risk gamble rather than a clever strategic maneuver.

Instead, a transformation of the political landscape is unfolding, with right-wing and left-wing blocs increasingly overshadowing the center. Right-wing factions see the elections as an opportunity to gain a parliamentary majority, which the left-wing aims to prevent. Coalitions opposing Macron's policies will complicate governmental work particularly in the budget-sensitive realm of foreign policy. This area involves shared decision-making between the executive and legislative branches, with constitutional provisions offering broad but unspecified guidelines for action.

Also in Germany, voters presumably expressed dissatisfaction with the traffic light coalition (Social Democrats/Greens/Liberals). The conservatives (CDU) achieved a staggering 30 percent, but also right-wing populists Alternative for Germany, and the newly founded left-wing populist party Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht gained significant share with 15,9 and 6,2 percent. The likelihood of snap elections will be clearer after the elections in three federal states this autumn and, above all, the upcoming budget round. Germany must make substantial investments in defense, digitalization, and infrastructure – despite the ongoing recovery from the disruptions caused by the war, high interest rates, and the pandemic. The massive amount of spending needed can only be achieved through extraordinary funds or by relaxing the debt brake. The latter would require a two-thirds majority in parliament and, hence, the CDU to agree. Yet the conservatives are torn between maintaining the debt brake, favored by many in their electorate, and the urgent need to invest in the German military. But the public sentiment towards the debt brake is shifting and approving it now would be wise before losing the ability to object once in government.

The massive challenges facing the EU call for more integration in times of increasing divide – and now also the fact that the member states are more concerned with themselves than with deepening European integration. The rising cost of living and diminishing purchasing power are contributing to an increasing sense of insecurity among citizens and a diminishing endorsement for the European project. Challenges such as defense needs, competitiveness promotion, and enlargement could justify new treaties – just that the current context is not favorable for such endeavors. Instead, the flexibility within existing treaties could allow for new methods for integrating prospective member states into the European Union, aligning the Green Deal with competitiveness, and enhancing defense investment through strengthened dialogue between political and industrial stakeholders.

The Franco-German engine of European integration is faltering, a trend exacerbated by Eurosceptic and nationalist politicians gaining momentum. It could now be the time for other countries to join forces and drive the European project forward.

Organized by The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), in partnership with the IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs (SPEGA), Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs, and PSIA Sciences Po.