On Thursday, February 12, the Johns Hopkins SAIS Bologna Institute for Policy Research hosted a timely panel titled "Transatlantic Turbulence: What's Next for Europe?" Panelists included Justin O. Frosini, Robert Abernethy Adjunct Professor at SAIS Europe and Director of the Center for Constitutional Studies and Democratic Development; Michael G. Plummer, Eni Professor of International Economics at SAIS Europe; and Nathalie Tocci, Professor of Practice at SAIS Europe. It was moderated by Michael Leigh, Senior Adjunct Professor at SAIS Europe. The panelists addressed how Europe is responding to emerging tensions within the transatlantic relationship and what it should do to navigate this new global environment.

For years, respect for democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and territorial integrity of states have been shared fundamental values between the United States and Europe. Speakers acknowledged that while neither bloc always lived up to the full measure of those ideals, both have continued to work together towards a better global future. However, U.S. President Donald Trump's second term has been marked by increasingly antagonistic treatment of Europe, raising questions about whether Europe can continue to help sustain the international order.

The European Union's legal structure is a quiet strength during these turbulent times. The EU cannot impose arbitrary punishment without a legal basis, but EU law grants the bloc greater structural power to navigate its changing relationship with the United States. Europe's Anti-Coercion Instrument is one of its strongest legal tools. However, deploying it is more of a political question rather than a legal one, and it raises the question of what Europe should not do as it navigates the shifts in the transatlantic relationship.

On the economic front, Europe's priorities should include supporting the WTO on multilateralism and expanding its partnerships with key trading partners like ASEAN and CPTPP member countries. It has been difficult to measure the full effects of tariffs on global economies, particularly given their volatility over the last year. There has yet to be a big economic implosion from Trump's tariffs, potentially due to increasing investments in AI infrastructure, but employment and manufacturing have dropped.

Europe's defense and security has also been tied to the transatlantic relationship for decades. Starting in the 2010s, the United States started encouraging Europe to become more strategically independent on defense. Since then, Europe has invested more in defense spending through the European defense fund and other initiatives. However, Europe is still dependent on the U.S. for military capabilities and weapons, and it is psychologically challenging to come to terms with the fact that the U.S. might represent a new enemy for Europe.

Panelists emphasized the importance of Europe standing strong in its legal and economic power and working towards a stronger defense ecosystem in order to weather the current transatlantic tempest. Panelists and participants also noted the personal and professional impact that the transatlantic relationship has had on their lives. These anecdotes underscored the profound influence this partnership has had in shaping our modern world and highlighted how even modest changes could fundamentally reshape it.

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hosted by Professor Michael Leigh