While introducing the panelists for Monday evening's BIPR seminar, Professor Sergey Radchenko drew attention to the evening's theme: a region in transition. He challenged the audience to consider two simple questions regarding the Middle East's "transition"—from where and to where? The timeliness of this event was highlighted by reports that Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the cusp of forming a deal that could have instant ramifications for the region.

Professor Raffaella A. Del Sarto, an expert on the international relations of the Middle East and North Africa, and Professor Lisel Hintz, who focuses on various forms of identity—national, ethnic, religious, gender—with a specialization on Turkey, shared their insights with students and faculty on recent trends in the Middle East.

Professor Del Sarto provided a "macro perspective" on the region. She explained that, as long-term dictators lost power during the Arab uprisings of the early 2010s, economic and political turmoil ensued. Those leaders and regimes that emerged from the turmoil have, naturally, become primarily concerned with maintaining their grasp on power. Rapidly shifting alliances are one consequence of this state of affairs. Professor Del Sarto described the 2020 Abraham Accords—bilateral agreements on Arab-Israeli normalization signed between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan—as a "business-security transaction." She pointed to the agreements as indicative of the decline of anti-Zionist norms in Middle Eastern politics.

Professor Hintz indicated that, across the region, she sees a pattern of "authoritarian entrenchment." Although the events of the Arab Spring created a sense of optimism that popular protest could cause changes in government, Professor Hintz suggested those protests did not produce the democratization many hoped for. In contrast, in cases such as Syria, Egypt, and even Tunisia – which some pointed to as the "democratic success" story in the region – (new) leaders fortified their positions through increased repression. Many people fleeing this "authoritarian entrenchment" find themselves in precarious positions in countries such as Turkey and Lebanon, and their plight has been exacerbated by international institutional efforts to keep MENA migrants out of Europe.

When asked about the role China plays in the Middle East, Professor Del Sarto shared her view that the Chinese economic and diplomatic impact is significant. In particular, the role China played in brokering the recent rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia points to China's growing diplomatic role. In addition, the construction of shipping ports throughout the region illustrates the degree of Chinese economic investment in the Middle East. Simultaneously, as the United States attempts to reduce its reliance on oil from the Middle East, the importance of oil remains substantial for China, Europe, and many other countries. For this reason, Professor Del Sarto does not foresee a rapid decline of oil's relevance to the region's economic and political development.

With respect to the recent announcements of an Israeli-Saudi pact, both Professors Hintz and Del Sarto directed attention to two major questions. Will a deal grant nuclear technology and the ability to enrich uranium to Saudi Arabia? And, will Israel agree to give concessions to Palestinians? Hard-right wing ministers of Israel's ruling coalition as well as a number of Likud government officials have been emphatic in their refusal to grant any type of concessions to the Palestinians. The nuclear question, however, remains unclear. In addition, both professors agreed that President Biden wants to successfully negotiate this landmark deal in advance of the 2024 election. Clearly, the complex, dynamic transitions ongoing in the Middle East have strong global impacts.

hosted by Professor Sergey Radchenko


RAFFAELLA A. DEL SARTO

Raffaella A. Del Sarto is Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, SAIS Europe campus, and Visiting Fellow at the European University Institute. She holds the Italian habilitation at the level of Full Professor of Political Science. Her areas of expertise include: the international relations of the Middle East and North Africa—particularly in relation to Europe, questions of borders, regional order(s) and interdependence, the domestic-foreign policy nexus, Israeli politics and foreign relations, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Before joining SAIS Europe, she was a part-time professor at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, where she directed the BORDERLANDS research project, funded by the European Research Council (ERC). Prior to this she was a Pears Fellow at Oxford University's St Antony's College, and prior to this, a Marie Curie Fellow and a Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute. She received her PhD in International Relations (summa cum laude) from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and her MA in Political Science from the Albert-Ludwigs University in Freiburg, Germany. In the late 1990s, during the Oslo process, she worked as a project manager with the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Jerusalem, managing a German government fund in support of Palestinian civil society organizations and peace-making. Del Sarto's articles have appeared in International Affairs, The Middle East Journal, Journal of Common Market Studies, Democratization, Mediterranean Politics and several other journals and volumes.

LISEL HINTZ

Lisel Hintz is Assistant Professor of European and Eurasian Studies at SAIS Europe. Professor Hintz studies the arenas in which struggles over various forms of identity – national, ethnic, religious, gender – take place. Her regional focus is on Turkey and its relations with Europe, the US, and the Middle East. Her first book with Oxford University Press (2018) examines how contestation over national identity spills over to shape and be shaped by foreign policy. Her current book project, under contract with Cambridge University Press, investigates Turkey's state-society struggles over identity in the pop culture sphere. Hintz contributes to Foreign Policy, The Washington Post, War on the Rocks, The Boston Globe, and BBC World Service, as well as to academic and policy discussions on Turkey's increasing authoritarianism, opposition dynamics, foreign policy shifts, and identity-related topics including Kurdish, Alevi, and gender issues. Hintz received her PhD in Political Science from George Washington University, was a Postdoctoral Fellow at Cornell University's Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies, and was Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University.