On 17 March, the Bologna Institute for Policy Research hosted Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London, to dissect the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict and NATO's role in shaping Europe's security landscape. Freedman's analysis blended historical depth with contemporary geopolitical realities, offering a nuanced exploration of how past conflicts inform present strategies and future uncertainties.

Freedman framed the Ukraine war within a broader historical continuum, emphasising that conflicts rarely follow linear narratives. He highlighted the 2014 annexation of Crimea as an early phase of the current crisis, underscoring how wars often lack clear beginnings or endings. Drawing parallels to the Korean War's 1953 ceasefire and Sudan's regular but only temporary peace agreements over many decades, Freedman cautioned against assuming a definitive resolution, noting that conflicts may persist in low-intensity phases or undergo abrupt escalations. Additionally, Freedman contrasted Ukraine's straightforward goal of liberating its territory and maintaining sovereignty with Russia's more complex aims. For Moscow, victory hinges on subjugating Ukraine's political autonomy while keeping it away from NATO. . He warned that a ceasefire risks becoming a "one-sided peace," particularly if Ukraine cannot get future backing from NATO countries, including the U.S. and Russia is able to rearm and prepare for another round of fighting.

Freedman argued that Trumps' fixation on his appearance as a 'dealmaker' risked sidelining European allies and empowering Putin's strategy to delay a ceasefire while demanding far-reaching concessions, giving him through negotiations what he has been unable to achieve in military operations. While acknowledging Europe's nascent efforts to coordinate security guarantees through NATO structures, Freedman stressed the challenges of institutional cohesion, noting Germany's evolving defense posture and debates over troop deployments. Meaningful security support was about investment in Ukraine's longer term defences and providing some additional deterrent effect. This was quite different from a prolonged peacekeeping missions. Moreover, Freedman contextualised NATO's role within a shifting transatlantic dynamic, where European states may increasingly seek autonomy from U.S. leadership. He highlighted the alliance's adaptability, citing historical precedents for non-U.S.-led operations. However, this will be balanced with pragmatism in finmdi8ng ways to resist Russia's demands for a neutral, disarmed Ukraine.

Freedman concluded by advocating for a multidimensional approach to conflict resolution, balancing military preparedness and diplomatic flexibility. He stressed the need to address Ukraine's internal challenges—population displacement, political legitimacy under martial law, and economic recovery—while fostering confidence in a stable future. Ultimately, Freedman urged policymakers to recognise that lasting security hinges on reconciling competing narratives and institutionalising trust, rather than relying on fleeting ceasefires or unilateral concessions. Overall, Freedman's discourse underscored the complexity of modern warfare and the challenges Europe may face as it evolves its security architecture.

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hosted by Professor Michael Leigh


Sir Lawrence Freedman is Professor Emeritus of War Studies, King's College London. He was Professor of War Studies from 1982 to 2014 and Vice-Principal from 2003 to 2013.

Freedman was educated at Whitley Bay Grammar School and the Universities of Manchester, York and Oxford. Before joining King's College he held research appointments at Nuffield College Oxford, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1995 and awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 1996, he was appointed Official Historian of the Falklands Campaign in 1997. In 2003 he was awarded the KCMG (Knight Commander of St Michael and St George). In June 2009 he was appointed to serve as a member of the official inquiry into Britain and the 2003 Iraq War.

Freedman has written on international history, strategic theory and nuclear weapons issues, as well as commenting on current security issues.

Among his recent books are Strategy: A History (2013), the Future of War: A History (2017), Ukraine and the Art of Strategy (2019) and, with Jeff Michaels, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (4th ed, 2019). He is currently working on a book regarding the politics of command.